TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?

Volume:
$463,003

Uzbekistan

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 27, 2026

Closed: Sep 27, 12:28 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Uzbekistan

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$47,053
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 5h
Yes
kalshi

Uzbekistan

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$42,212
N/A
N/A
$23,995
1d 15h 42m
Yes
kalshi

United States of America

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$48,920
N/A
N/A
$43,070
1d 15h 42m
No
polymarket

United States of America

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,547
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 5h
No
polymarket

India

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$48,242
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 5h
No
kalshi

India

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,085
N/A
N/A
$6,468
1d 15h 42m
No
polymarket

Germany

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,027
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Germany

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,514
N/A
N/A
$3,162
1d 15h 42m
No
polymarket

France

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,903
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

France

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$384
N/A
N/A
$384
1d 15h 42m
No
polymarket

China

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,122
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 5h
No
kalshi

China

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,903
N/A
N/A
$3,697
1d 15h 42m
No
polymarket

Armenia

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,408
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 5h
No
kalshi

Armenia

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,924
N/A
N/A
$1,613
1d 15h 42m
No
polymarket

Netherlands

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,042
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Netherlands

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,192
N/A
N/A
$1,084
1d 15h 42m
No
polymarket

Azerbaijan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,754
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Azerbaijan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$709
N/A
N/A
$675
1d 15h 42m
No
polymarket

Turkiye

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,457
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Turkiye

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 15h 42m
No
polymarket

Hungary

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,347
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Hungary

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$164
N/A
N/A
$164
1d 15h 42m
No
polymarket

Ukraine

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,758
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 5h
No
kalshi

Ukraine

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$613
N/A
N/A
$613
1d 15h 42m
No
polymarket

Serbia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,684
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 84

Intro

This market tracks which national team will win the Open Tournament at the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad. Currently, the consensus probability of Uzbekistan winning is 99.0%. This forecast aggregates data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on official results from the tournament organizer, FIDE (https://chessolympiad2026.fide.com/). The 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad is scheduled for September 15-28, 2026, so keep an eye on the tournament standings as they develop throughout the event window, with final resolution expected around October 1, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms define resolution based on the same event – the winner of the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament – and include a similar contingency for tournament postponement/cancellation.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the tournament organizer, FIDE (https://chessolympiad2026.fide.com/)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to 'Yes' if a listed country wins the tournament.
  • In the event of a tie, the alphabetically first team wins.
  • If the tournament is postponed after October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner is not declared, the market resolves to 'Other'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie for First: If two or more teams tie for first place, the team whose name comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner for resolution purposes.
  • Tournament Cancellation: If the tournament is canceled before a winner is declared, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
  • Postponement: If the tournament is postponed after October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
Timing: Resolution will occur upon the official announcement of the tournament winner by FIDE, or upon determination of 'Other' status due to cancellation or postponement after the specified date.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, currently scheduled for September 15, 2026 to September 28, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, FIDE (https://chessolympiad2026.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If India wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If United States of America wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Uzbekistan wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If China wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Serbia wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Armenia wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Germany wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Azerbaijan wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Slovenia wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Spain wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hungary wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Turkiye wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Greece wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Norway wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If France wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ukraine wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Romania wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Czech Republic wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Georgia wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If England wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Netherlands wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Poland wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Moldova wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Turkmenistan wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Vietnam wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Iran wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bulgaria wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Latvia wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kazakhstan wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sweden wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Colombia wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Austria wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Croatia wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Canada wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brazil wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Argentina wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mexico wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Egypt wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Chile wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lithuania wins the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, the Chess Olympiad winner market dashboard tracks the probability of different teams winning the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $463,003, with $6,908 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view of predictions from a diverse group of traders. The dashboard displays the implied probabilities, trading volume, and historical price movements for this market, allowing users to understand how opinions are shifting as the event approaches. This is a great way to gauge the collective wisdom of the crowd regarding the tournament's outcome.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds. This is because prediction markets incentivize participants to reveal their true beliefs, while sportsbooks may factor in biases or profit margins. Sportsbooks also typically have limits on bet sizes, whereas prediction markets can accommodate larger wagers. However, sportsbooks often offer a wider range of betting options, and may be more readily available to casual bettors. The efficiency of this market will be determined by the level of participation and information available to traders.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Key player injuries or unexpected withdrawals from strong teams would likely cause price shifts. Strong performances by underdog teams in preliminary rounds could also increase their implied probability of winning. Any news regarding team strategies, coaching changes, or geopolitical factors affecting participation could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, major upsets in early matches or unexpected draws between top contenders could lead to substantial movements in the odds for this market. Monitoring chess news and tournament results will be crucial for understanding potential catalysts.