TOTAL VOLUME:

$115b

24H VOL:

$133,386,406

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,328,557,186

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,198,005,985

320,504

Markets across

31,495

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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3rd Largest Company end of August?
Companies
polymarket
predict

3rd Largest Company end of August?

Jul 15, 2026, 9:01 PM EST - Aug 31, 2026, 7:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$327,224
Volume 24h:
$6,132
61%
Liquidity:
$268,400
38%
Open interest:
$75,167N/A

Amazon

all

2 markets

Predict

99.8%

Polymarket

0.1%

consensus

50%

-0.1%

spread

0.1-99.8%

(99.7pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

0%20%40%60%80%

Aug 15

Aug 17

Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Vol.

$2.4k

·

Resolves Aug 31, 2026

Time left: 09d:05h:31m

Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99.8¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.2% | APY: 8% Low liquidity 9 days to resolution
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 0.1¢ buys you 100,000 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $100,000 | Net Profit: $99,900 Multiplier: 1000.00x | ROI: 99,900% APY not meaningful 9 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This event group tracks which company will hold the third-largest position by market capitalization as of the market close on August 31, 2026. Multiple markets across Polymarket and Predict platforms offer binary outcomes for various companies to be in this position.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict markets use identical resolution logic: third-largest company by market cap as of market close on August 31, 2026, with resolution based on consensus of credible reporting.Primary resolution logic: Consensus of credible financial reporting (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, major financial news outlets)

Core resolution logic:

  • Market capitalization will be calculated using the closing stock price on August 31, 2026, multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares for each company
  • Rankings will be determined by comparing total market capitalizations across all publicly traded companies globally
  • In case of a tie for the third position, the market for the company that ends higher in the ranking will resolve as YES, and all others as NO
  • If a company undergoes a corporate action (merger, acquisition, etc.) that significantly changes its share structure before August 31, the market cap will reflect the post-action value

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Corporate Actions: If a company undergoes a merger or acquisition before August 31 that fundamentally changes its market cap, the resulting entity's market cap will be used for ranking purposes
  • Delisted Companies: If a company currently in the top 5 delists before August 31, its market cap will be considered zero for ranking purposes
  • Currency Conversion: All market caps will be converted to a common currency (likely USD) using the appropriate exchange rate as of August 31 market close
Timing: Resolution will occur after market close on August 31, 2026, once consensus reporting confirms the final market capitalizations and rankingsOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Predict

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the 3rd largest company market aggregates predictions across multiple venues, showing real-time consensus and volume. It displays how traders on different platforms price the likelihood of each corporation claiming the third spot by market capitalization at the end of August. You can see overall volume of $327,224 and 24-hour volume of $6,124, plus a snapshot of where Polymarket and Predict stand. This gives a clear, cross-platform view of market sentiment and momentum as we approach Aug 31, 2026.

On Polymarket and Predict, prices can vary because of different user bases, liquidity levels, and trading activity. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? at 97.2%, while Predict leans toward Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? at 99.8%. Factors such as regional investor interest, market maker strategies, and recent news coverage can all create a spread of 2.6 between the two venues. These differences often shrink as Aug 31, 2026 approaches as more data emerges and traders arbitrage away disparities.

This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The ranking will be determined by each company’s market capitalization at the close of trading on that day, compared across reliable financial data sources. No subjective judgment is involved — the highest three values decide the result, and the market settles automatically once official figures are published and confirmed.

Several signals could shift probabilities before Aug 31, 2026. Major earnings reports, surprise mergers, regulatory decisions, or macroeconomic shifts may reshape market caps quickly. News around leadership changes, product launches, or debt refinancings for the top contenders could also sway trader sentiment. Additionally, broad market volatility or currency fluctuations might alter valuations. Keep an eye on financial headlines and quarterly updates from the companies involved, as any significant surprise is likely to move this market materially as we near its resolution date.