TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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330: Tobias vs Fernando
kalshi

What is the result of Tobias vs Fernando?

Volume:
$1,862,940

Lucas Fernando

 - Kalshi

Lucas Fernando - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

Closed: Aug 15, 6:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Lucas Fernando

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$999,428
N/A
N/A
$797,729
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Rafael Tobias

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$863,511
N/A
N/A
$680,401
Settled
No
Total markets: 2

Intro

This market tracks whether Lucas Fernando will win the Tobias vs Fernando professional MMA fight scheduled for August 15, 2026, on Kalshi, resolving based on the fight's official result. The current probability that Fernando will win stands at 74.0%, with Rafael Tobias winning at 27.0%. The outcome will be determined by the conclusion of the bout on August 15, 2026, including any official postponements or unusual outcomes such as ties.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the winner of the Tobias vs Fernando professional MMA fight originally scheduled for August 15, 2026. If postponed or delayed, the market stays open until the rescheduled fight finishes within two weeks. A tie or no contest splits the resolution equally, and cancellation or rescheduling beyond two weeks results in a fair price. These provisions apply separately for each fighter’s market and are not endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Tobias vs Fernando fight odds dashboard tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume for this market. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of each fighter winning, updated continuously throughout the event's lead-up. The dashboard reflects a volume of $1,862,940 and recent 24-hour volume of $1,611,908, giving you insight into market sentiment as the fight approaches.

Prediction market odds often differ from traditional sportsbook lines because they reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders rather than set benchmarks. This market may show a different implied probability for each fighter compared to sportsbooks, especially as new information emerges. Traders in this market react to data such as fighter performance, injuries, and training updates, which can cause shifts not immediately reflected in sportsbook lines.

This market resolves around Aug 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by the official declaration of the fight’s conclusion, and the market will settle based on that verified result. No further interpretation is needed beyond what is publicly confirmed at that time.

Several signals could shift this market before it resolves, including pre-fight media appearances, training updates, injury reports, and changes in betting volumes. Any news affecting fighter momentum or health will likely cause traders to adjust their positions, moving the odds. Additionally, broader trends like changing public sentiment or analytical breakdowns from experts may also influence market movements as Aug 16, 2026 approaches.