TOTAL VOLUME:
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OPEN INTEREST:
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469,827
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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VS.
Kalshi:
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Democratic by 9.0% or more
- Kalshi
Democratic by 9.0% or more - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 8, 2029
Latest in Elections
Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?
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Description
This market concerns the popular vote outcome in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, specifically tracking whether the winning candidate's margin of victory falls within a competitive range. The event resolves affirmatively regardless of which major party's candidate wins, as long as the margin of victory is at least 0.01 percentage points.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on the popular vote margin in the 2028 presidential election, calculated as (winner's votes minus second-place votes) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. The calculation uses states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment as of the January joint session of Congress; if Congress counts a different certificate, that one is used; if Congress rejects all certificates for a state, the most recently issued one applies. Votes for candidates under multiple party nominations are aggregated. If a winner changes party affiliation between election day and inauguration, resolution is based on their Election Day party. An exact 0.00% tie results in all markets resolving to No. The outcomes are divided into specific margin ranges for both Democratic and Republican victories, spanning from 0.01% to 100% margins.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcome ranges for the 2028 presidential election margin. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of the expected results. The current volume indicates strong interest in understanding the potential outcome of the election.
This market resolves around Jan 8, 2029, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official, certified popular vote margin as reported by relevant election authorities. This means the final result will be determined by the actual votes cast and tallied, not by any pre-election predictions or estimates. Traders will then receive payouts based on whether their chosen outcome range matches the final, verified result.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major economic shifts, unexpected geopolitical events, or significant changes in candidate platforms could all influence trader sentiment. Key primary debates and candidate announcements will also be closely watched. Furthermore, any news regarding potential third-party candidates or shifts in voter demographics could lead to substantial price movements. The release of polling data, while often considered separately, can also impact trading activity in this market as traders incorporate new information into their forecasts.
