TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 21, 7:59 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the current league of the 2026 US Open champion. If the champion holds active membership on both tours, PGA Tour will take precedence. If the champion is not an active member of any tour as of that date, this market will resolve to "Amateur". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 US Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is cancelled, postponed after July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if a champion has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the US Open website (https://www.usopen.com/leaderboard).
This market will resolve according to the current league of the 2026 US Open champion. If the champion holds active membership on both tours, PGA Tour will take precedence. If the champion is not an active member of any tour as of that date, this market will resolve to "Amateur". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 US Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is cancelled, postponed after July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if a champion has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the US Open website (https://www.usopen.com/leaderboard).
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and protect their margin, while prediction markets are driven purely by trader belief and capital allocation. This market's odds represent an aggregation of individual forecasts rather than a bookmaker's calculated spread. Comparing this market's prices to major sportsbooks can reveal where public opinion on the winner differs from professional oddsmakers, though both sources aim to price the same underlying event.
On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling shares that represent different outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share's price reflects the probability assigned by the market; higher prices indicate stronger collective confidence in that outcome. The platform uses an automated market maker to ensure liquidity and continuous pricing. As new information surfaces—injury reports, recent tournament results, or course specifics—traders adjust their positions, and prices shift accordingly. This dynamic pricing mechanism means odds can change rapidly in response to breaking news or shifting expectations.
This market resolves around Jun 21, 2026, once the 2026 U.S. Open concludes and the winner is confirmed. The outcome is determined by the player who finishes with the lowest score over the tournament's full 72 holes. Resolution is verified against credible public sources covering professional golf, ensuring accuracy and transparency. Until that date, traders can continue to buy and sell shares as conditions and odds evolve.
Major catalysts include player injuries, recent tournament performances, and course-setup announcements. A top contender's withdrawal or strong finish on the PGA Tour can shift odds significantly. Weather forecasts closer to June may favor certain playing styles. Changes in player rankings, equipment news, or caddie changes can also influence trader sentiment. Additionally, any updates on course conditions or field adjustments will prompt repricing. Media coverage and expert commentary often accelerate price movements as the event approaches.