TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
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OPEN INTEREST:
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402,751
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30,217
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MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Caissie Levy
- Polymarket
Caissie Levy - Polymarket
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Resolved Jun 8, 2026
Closed: Jun 6, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
The ceremony for the 79th Annual Tony Awards is scheduled for June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed person that wins the award for Best Leading Actress in a Musical at the 79th Annual Tony Awards. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contender whose name comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Tony Awards and the official Tony website (https://www.tonyawards.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader sentiment and often diverge from traditional analyst predictions and award-season pundit forecasts. While analysts may rely on critical reviews, industry buzz, and historical voting patterns, prediction markets incorporate all available information through continuous price discovery. Comparing Polymarket odds to major awards forecasters and entertainment journalists can reveal where the market is more bullish or bearish on specific actresses. These differences highlight whether traders are pricing in factors analysts may have overlooked or underweighted.
On Polymarket, each nominated actress is represented as a separate outcome contract. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 1 cent, where the price directly reflects the implied probability of that actress winning. The sum of all outcome prices equals 1 cent. As new information emerges—such as critical acclaim, award-season momentum, or casting announcements—traders adjust positions, moving prices up or down. Higher prices indicate stronger market confidence in a particular actress's chances of winning the Tony Award for Best Leading Actress in a Musical.
The market resolves on Jun 7, 2026, following the 2026 Tony Awards ceremony. Resolution is determined by the official winner announced during the live broadcast. The actress who receives the Tony Award for Best Leading Actress in a Musical will be declared the correct outcome, and all contracts for that actress will pay out at full value. All other actress contracts will expire worthless. Traders should monitor the official Tony Awards broadcast and announcements to confirm the final result.
Key catalysts include Broadway opening dates and critical reviews for shows featuring nominated actresses, industry award nominations and wins from the Golden Globes and other ceremonies, media coverage and award-season momentum, cast changes or production delays affecting visibility, and social media and fan sentiment shifts. Major performances or interviews can boost an actress's profile, while negative reviews or production issues may reduce her chances. As the Tony Awards ceremony approaches, each new piece of information—from trade publications, social media trends, or insider commentary—can trigger significant price movements on Polymarket.
