TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Shoshana Bean
- Polymarket
Shoshana Bean - Polymarket
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Resolved Jun 8, 2026
Closed: Jun 6, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
The ceremony for the 79th Annual Tony Awards is scheduled for June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed person that wins the award for Best Featured Actress in a Musical at the 79th Annual Tony Awards. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contender whose name comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Tony Awards and the official Tony website (https://www.tonyawards.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket often diverge from traditional analyst predictions and entertainment industry forecasts. Markets reflect real-money conviction and aggregate information from diverse traders, while analysts rely on critical reviews, industry buzz, and historical voting patterns. Market odds tend to update faster when new information emerges—such as cast announcements or critical reception—whereas analyst forecasts may lag. Comparing Polymarket probabilities to major entertainment publications and award prediction sites like Gold Derby or Variety can reveal where traders see value or disagreement with conventional wisdom about this year's frontrunners.
On Polymarket, the 2026 Tony Awards Best Featured Actress in a Musical market is priced as a set of binary outcome contracts, one for each nominee. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract trades between 0 and 100 cents, where the price reflects the implied probability that nominee will win. Traders buy contracts they believe are underpriced and sell those they view as overvalued. The market uses an automated market maker to determine prices based on order flow and liquidity. As the June 2026 Tony Awards approach, prices adjust continuously based on new information, betting activity, and shifts in industry sentiment about each performer's chances.
The market resolves on Jun 7, 2026, following the official announcement of the Best Featured Actress in a Musical winner at the 2026 Tony Awards ceremony. Resolution is determined by the official Tony Awards results as announced by the Broadway League and confirmed by major entertainment media outlets. The winning nominee's contract settles at 100 cents, while all other nominees' contracts settle at zero. This ensures that market outcomes align directly with the actual award winner, providing clear and definitive resolution for all traders.
Several catalysts could shift odds for this category. Opening night reviews and critical reception of each nominee's performance will heavily influence trader sentiment. Tony Award nomination announcements themselves represent a major signal, as will any major cast changes or production closures. Industry awards earlier in the season—such as Drama Desk or Outer Critics Circle awards—often correlate with Tony voting patterns. Media coverage, social media momentum, and insider commentary from Broadway journalists can trigger rapid repricing. Additionally, voter interviews, campaign activity by studios and producers, and unexpected breakout performances during the season all serve as information events that traders monitor and react to.
