TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Alden Ehrenreich
- Polymarket
Alden Ehrenreich - Polymarket
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 8, 2026
Closed: Jun 6, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
The ceremony for the 79th Annual Tony Awards is scheduled for June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed person that wins the award for Best Featured Actor in a Play at the 79th Annual Tony Awards. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contender whose name comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Tony Awards and the official Tony website (https://www.tonyawards.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money consensus from traders and can differ meaningfully from traditional theater critics and award analysts. While analysts often rely on reviews, industry buzz, and historical voting patterns, prediction markets incorporate live information and trader conviction through financial incentives. Comparing Polymarket probabilities to published forecasts from major entertainment publications and award-tracking sites reveals where the market diverges from expert opinion. These differences often highlight undervalued or overvalued candidates based on emerging performance data or shifting industry sentiment closer to the June ceremony.
On Polymarket, the Best Featured Actor in a Play market is priced through an automated market maker that converts each candidate's share price into an implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each performer's contract trades between 0 and 100 cents, with the sum of all contracts equaling 100 cents. Higher prices reflect stronger market confidence in a win. Trading volume and order-book depth determine liquidity and slippage for position entry and exit. Real-time price discovery on Polymarket reflects active trader positioning and new information about performances, reviews, and industry sentiment.
The market resolves on Jun 7, 2026, following the live broadcast of the 2026 Tony Awards ceremony. Resolution is determined by the official winner announced during the televised awards presentation. The market will settle to 100 for the winning performer's contract and 0 for all other nominees. Traders should monitor the official Tony Awards broadcast and confirmation from the Broadway League or Tony Awards official channels to verify the outcome. Any delays in official announcement may affect resolution timing.
Critical catalysts include opening-night reviews and critical reception for nominated performances, major industry award wins at the Golden Globes or SAG Awards, social media and fan voting trends, and behind-the-scenes industry commentary from Broadway insiders. Cast changes or unexpected performance cancellations could shift odds dramatically. Media coverage intensifying closer to June will amplify price volatility. Voter interviews and published voting patterns from previous Tony cycles may influence market positioning. Late-breaking news about performer health, controversies, or standout performances in the final weeks before the ceremony typically drives the largest probability swings.
