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406,065

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2026 NBA Draft Lottery: 4th Pick
polymarket
kalshi

2026 NBA Draft Lottery: 4th Pick

Volume:
$482,755

Caleb Wilson

 - Kalshi

Caleb Wilson - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved May 11, 2026

Closed: Jun 23, 8:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Caleb Wilson

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$222,620
N/A
N/A
$161,862
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Chicago Bulls

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Cameron Boozer

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$110,675
N/A
N/A
$95,405
Settled
No
kalshi

Darius Acuff Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$72,279
N/A
N/A
$61,700
Settled
No
kalshi

Darryn Peterson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$44,387
N/A
N/A
$39,523
Settled
No
kalshi

Keaton Wagler

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,595
N/A
N/A
$18,159
Settled
No
kalshi

Mikel Brown Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,660
N/A
N/A
$7,581
Settled
No
kalshi

Kingston Flemings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,083
N/A
N/A
$885
Settled
No
kalshi

Aday Mara

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,059
N/A
N/A
$1,056
Settled
No
kalshi

AJ Dybantsa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$993
N/A
N/A
$993
Settled
No
kalshi

Yaxel Lendeborg

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$784
N/A
N/A
$784
Settled
No
polymarket

Golden State Warriors

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$505
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Dallas Mavericks

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$255
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Labaron Philon Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$119
N/A
N/A
$119
Settled
No
kalshi

Koa Peat

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$106
N/A
N/A
$106
Settled
No
kalshi

Karim Lopez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$80
N/A
N/A
$80
Settled
No
kalshi

Chris Cenac Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$62
N/A
N/A
$62
Settled
No
kalshi

Cameron Carr

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$53
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Nate Ament

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$52
N/A
N/A
$52
Settled
No
kalshi

Bennett Stirtz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$49
N/A
N/A
$46
Settled
No
kalshi

Morez Johnson Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31
N/A
N/A
$31
Settled
No
kalshi

Brayden Burries

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
$13
Settled
No
kalshi

Christian Anderson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
No
polymarket

Boston Celtics

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Charlotte Hornets

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 56

Description

This market will resolve based on which team holds the draft rights to the fourth overall pick at the conclusion of the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery. If a listed team holds another franchise's draft pick via trade at the time of the lottery, and that traded pick results in the fourth overall selection, the holder of the draft rights is considered the winner, not the team whose record determined the lottery odds. If a traded pick is subject to protection (e.g., "top-5 protected"), the winner is determined by which team ultimately receives the fourth overall pick after all protections are applied. If the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery is postponed, not completed, or no team has been announced as the recipient of the fourth overall pick by July 9, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure orthogonal dimensions of the same event. Polymarket resolves on team identity; Kalshi resolves on player identity. A single outcome (e.g., Cavaliers select Darryn Peterson 4th) satisfies both markets, but the contracts themselves are fundamentally different settlement objects.Hero tip: Treat these as complementary, not competing, markets. Use Polymarket team odds to infer draft order, then cross-check Kalshi player odds against that team's likely board. If a team is heavily favored on Polymarket but its top prospects are underpriced on Kalshi, that signals mispricing. Also note: Kalshi has no explicit "Other" category, so if an unlisted player is selected 4th, all Kalshi contracts resolve NO—a tail risk not present on Polymarket.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves on which NBA TEAM holds draft rights to the 4th pick. Accounts for traded picks and protections. Resolves to 'Other' if lottery is postponed, not completed, or no team announced by July 9, 2026. Resolution source: official NBA information or credible reporting consensus.
  • Kalshi: Resolves on which PLAYER is selected 4th overall in the 2026 NBA Draft. Each contract is binary: YES if that specific player is selected 4th, NO otherwise. No explicit fallback for unlisted players or postponement defined.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if any of the eligible prospects is selected as the 4th overall pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft. Each prospect—including Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, Caleb Wilson, Kingston Flemings, Mikel Brown Jr., Nate Ament, Isaiah Evans, Yaxel Lendeborg, Darius Acuff Jr., Jayden Quaintance, Koa Peat, Keaton Wagler, Brayden Burries, Karim Lopez, Labaron Philon Jr., Aday Mara, Hannes Steinbach, Chris Cenac Jr., Cameron Carr, Bennett Stirtz, Christian Anderson, and Morez Johnson Jr.—has an associated outcome. Exactly one prospect will be selected with the 4th pick, and the corresponding market outcome will resolve affirmatively.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket for the Pro Basketball #4 Overall Pick reflect real-time supply and demand from traders rather than fixed lines set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks typically offer tighter spreads and lower limits, while prediction markets allow continuous price discovery and larger position sizes. Sportsbook odds may lag market-moving news or lottery developments, whereas prediction markets adjust instantly as new information emerges. Comparing Polymarket prices to major sportsbooks can reveal where sharp traders see value, though prediction markets and sportsbooks serve different purposes and risk profiles.

On Kalshi, the Pro Basketball #4 Overall Pick is priced as a binary contract reflecting the implied probability of specific draft outcomes. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices move based on order flow, with buyers and sellers negotiating contracts that settle to either $1 or $0 at resolution. The current market reflects trader conviction about which team will secure the fourth pick or which player will be selected at that slot. Kalshi's order-book model allows traders to set limit orders and watch prices adjust in real time as new lottery information or draft analysis surfaces.

Key catalysts for Pro Basketball #4 Overall Pick price movement include lottery odds updates, team trades or roster moves affecting draft positioning, college basketball tournament results, player injury announcements, and pre-draft workouts or evaluations. Media reports on which teams are targeting specific positions or players can shift trader expectations. Surprise draft declarations or withdrawals by college prospects also influence fourth-pick outcomes. As the draft lottery approaches, official lottery ball drawings and final team preparation announcements will drive significant repricing. Breaking news about team front-office changes or draft strategy shifts can trigger sharp moves on Polymarket.