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2026 NBA Draft Lottery: 12th Pick
kalshi
polymarket

2026 NBA Draft Lottery: 12th Pick

Volume:
$151,434

Aday Mara

 - Kalshi

Aday Mara - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved May 11, 2026

Closed: Jun 23, 9:22 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Aday Mara

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$43,435
N/A
N/A
$30,669
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Oklahoma City Thunder

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$156
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Yaxel Lendeborg

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$32,726
N/A
N/A
$23,346
Settled
No
kalshi

Nate Ament

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,007
N/A
N/A
$19,879
Settled
No
kalshi

Morez Johnson Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,867
N/A
N/A
$13,607
Settled
No
kalshi

Hannes Steinbach

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,315
N/A
N/A
$10,061
Settled
No
kalshi

Karim Lopez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,833
N/A
N/A
$7,213
Settled
No
kalshi

Bennett Stirtz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,069
N/A
N/A
$6,029
Settled
No
kalshi

Brayden Burries

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,144
N/A
N/A
$2,968
Settled
No
kalshi

Labaron Philon Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,494
N/A
N/A
$1,438
Settled
No
kalshi

Cameron Carr

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,162
N/A
N/A
$1,162
Settled
No
kalshi

Allen Graves

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$923
N/A
N/A
$923
Settled
No
kalshi

Meleek Thomas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$851
N/A
N/A
$851
Settled
No
kalshi

Jayden Quaintance

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$622
N/A
N/A
$617
Settled
No
kalshi

Dailyn Swain

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$495
N/A
N/A
$495
Settled
No
kalshi

Amari Allen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$347
N/A
N/A
$347
Settled
No
kalshi

Kingston Flemings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$298
N/A
N/A
$298
Settled
No
kalshi

Darius Acuff Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$118
N/A
N/A
$118
Settled
No
kalshi

Mikel Brown Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$101
N/A
N/A
$101
Settled
No
kalshi

Isaiah Evans

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$94
N/A
N/A
$94
Settled
No
kalshi

AJ Dybantsa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$47
N/A
N/A
$47
Settled
No
kalshi

Christian Anderson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$42
N/A
N/A
$42
Settled
No
polymarket

Atlanta Hawks

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Boston Celtics

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Brooklyn Nets

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 83

Description

This event group tracks the outcome of the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery with respect to the 12th overall pick. Kalshi markets resolve based on which individual player is selected at that position, while Polymarket markets resolve based on which NBA team receives the draft rights to that pick.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure different dimensions of the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery 12th pick outcome. Kalshi focuses on player selection; Polymarket focuses on team ownership. Both are resolvable but answer distinct questions.Hero tip: Understand your exposure: Kalshi bets are on player identity (50 named prospects plus implicit NO if none selected). Polymarket bets are on team ownership (30 NBA teams plus Team A, Team B, and Other). A single draft event will resolve both, but in different ways. Cross-platform arbitrage is not possible here.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Player-centric resolution. Market resolves YES if any of 50 named players (Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, etc.) is selected as the 12th overall pick. Implicit NO if a player not on the list is selected 12th. No team dimension mentioned.
  • Polymarket: Team-centric resolution. Market resolves YES if a specified NBA team (Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, etc.) holds the draft rights to the 12th pick after lottery completion. Accounts for traded picks, protections, and postponements. Resolves to Other if lottery is not completed by July 9, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if any of the listed players is selected as the 12th overall pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft. Each player outcome is mutually exclusive, as only one player can occupy the 12th position. Resolution is determined by the official draft selection announced during the 2026 NBA Draft event.

Frequently asked questions

Key catalysts for price movement include NBA lottery results, which determine draft order; college basketball tournament performances and player evaluations; team trades or roster moves affecting draft priorities; injury reports on top prospects; and official pre-draft workouts and interviews. Media mock drafts and analyst consensus shifts can also influence trader positioning. Surprise draft declarations, coaching changes, or front-office statements about team direction may trigger volatility. As the draft date approaches, confirmed lottery outcomes and final prospect rankings will likely drive the most significant repricing of the #12 pick outcome.