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2026 NBA Draft Lottery: 11th Pick
kalshi
polymarket

2026 NBA Draft Lottery: 11th Pick

Volume:
$167,884

Yaxel Lendeborg

 - Kalshi

Yaxel Lendeborg - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved May 11, 2026

Closed: Jun 23, 9:15 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Yaxel Lendeborg

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$78,816
N/A
N/A
$53,394
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Golden State Warriors

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$155
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Aday Mara

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$46,263
N/A
N/A
$36,449
Settled
No
kalshi

Brayden Burries

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,913
N/A
N/A
$16,349
Settled
No
kalshi

Nate Ament

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,025
N/A
N/A
$5,704
Settled
No
kalshi

Labaron Philon Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,942
N/A
N/A
$2,893
Settled
No
kalshi

Morez Johnson Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,766
N/A
N/A
$2,514
Settled
No
kalshi

Hannes Steinbach

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,661
N/A
N/A
$2,622
Settled
No
kalshi

Bennett Stirtz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,286
N/A
N/A
$1,705
Settled
No
kalshi

Cameron Carr

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,741
N/A
N/A
$1,741
Settled
No
kalshi

Dailyn Swain

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,598
N/A
N/A
$1,598
Settled
No
kalshi

Karim Lopez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,329
N/A
N/A
$1,289
Settled
No
kalshi

Kingston Flemings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$788
N/A
N/A
$788
Settled
No
kalshi

Isaiah Evans

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$510
N/A
N/A
$510
Settled
No
kalshi

Christian Anderson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$270
N/A
N/A
$270
Settled
No
kalshi

Darius Acuff Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$187
N/A
N/A
$187
Settled
No
kalshi

Chris Cenac Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$110
N/A
N/A
$107
Settled
No
kalshi

AJ Dybantsa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$105
N/A
N/A
$105
Settled
No
kalshi

Ebuka Okorie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Amari Allen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22
N/A
N/A
$22
Settled
No
kalshi

Tounde Yessoufou

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
No
polymarket

Atlanta Hawks

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Boston Celtics

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Brooklyn Nets

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Charlotte Hornets

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 83

Description

This market will resolve based on which team holds the draft rights to the eleventh overall pick at the conclusion of the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery. If a listed team holds another franchise's draft pick via trade at the time of the lottery, and that traded pick results in the eleventh overall selection, the holder of the draft rights is considered the winner, not the team whose record determined the lottery odds. If a traded pick is subject to protection (e.g., "top-5 protected"), the winner is determined by which team ultimately receives the eleventh overall pick after all protections are applied. If the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery is postponed, not completed, or no team has been announced as the recipient of the eleventh overall pick by July 9, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The two platforms measure different dimensions of the same event: Kalshi focuses on player identity (binary per player), while Polymarket focuses on team ownership of the pick. This creates a scope divergence rather than a logical contradiction, as both can be simultaneously true (e.g., Team X holds the pick AND Player Y from the Kalshi list is selected).Hero tip: Recognize that these markets are complementary layers of the same draft outcome. Kalshi's 50-player list does not cover all possible 11th picks—if an unlisted prospect is drafted 11th, all Kalshi player markets resolve NO while Polymarket's corresponding team market resolves YES. Cross-reference prospect rankings, team draft needs, and trade activity to identify basis risk. The Polymarket team-level resolution is more robust because it covers all 30 NBA teams; Kalshi's player list is curated and finite.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Player-centric binary resolution. Market resolves YES if any of 50 named players is selected as the 11th overall pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft. No explicit handling of traded picks or protections; assumes the player identity is the sole determinant. Key quote: 'If [Player Name] is selected as the 11th overall pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Team-centric binary resolution. Market resolves YES if a specified NBA team holds the draft rights to the 11th overall pick at the conclusion of the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery. Explicitly addresses traded picks (winner is the holder of draft rights, not the team whose record determined odds) and protections (winner is the team that ultimately receives the pick after protections apply). Resolution source is official NBA information or credible consensus reporting. Key quote: 'If a listed team holds another franchise's draft pick via trade at the time of the lottery, and that traded pick results in the eleventh overall selection, the holder of the draft rights is considered the winner.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if any of the listed players is selected as the 11th overall pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft. Each player outcome is mutually exclusive, as only one player can occupy the 11th position. Resolution is determined by the official draft selection announced during the 2026 NBA Draft event.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time trader consensus on the eleventh overall pick outcome, often moving faster than traditional sportsbook lines because they aggregate continuous market activity rather than periodic updates. Sportsbooks typically adjust odds based on sharp action and liability management, while prediction markets like Polymarket allow anyone to trade, creating a crowdsourced probability estimate. The Polymarket market currently reflects strong conviction around specific draft scenarios, offering a transparent alternative to closed-book sportsbook pricing for tracking draft expectations.

Key catalysts for price movement include player injury announcements, draft combine performance results, team roster changes, lottery odds shifts, and analyst mock draft updates. Pre-draft workouts and private team meetings often signal which prospects teams are seriously considering, moving odds for specific picks. Trade rumors involving teams with high lottery odds can dramatically reshape expectations. Media reports about team needs, coaching staff preferences, and front office priorities also drive trading activity. As draft day approaches, final team evaluations and last-minute trades represent the most volatile catalysts for market repricing.