TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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2026 Grand Chess Tour: Super Rapid and Blitz Croatia Winner
polymarket
kalshi

2026 Grand Chess Tour: Super Rapid and Blitz Croatia Winner

Volume:
$153,396

Alireza Firouzja

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 5, 2026

Closed: Jul 6, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Alireza Firouzja

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15,646
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Alireza Firouzja

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,641
N/A
N/A
$6,984
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$59,552
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,698
N/A
N/A
$2,321
Settled
No
polymarket

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,217
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,943
N/A
N/A
$1,653
Settled
No
polymarket

Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,999
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,041
N/A
N/A
$2,506
Settled
No
polymarket

Bogdan-Daniel Deac

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,378
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Bogdan-Daniel Deac

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$218
N/A
N/A
$218
Settled
No
polymarket

Jorden Van Foreest

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,359
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jorden van Foreest

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$275
N/A
N/A
$245
Settled
No
polymarket

Vincent Keymer

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,153
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Vincent Keymer

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$707
N/A
N/A
$547
Settled
No
polymarket

Gukesh Dommaraju

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,921
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Gukesh Dommaraju

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$134
N/A
N/A
$134
Settled
No
polymarket

Anish Giri

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,572
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Anish Giri

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$205
N/A
N/A
$191
Settled
No
polymarket

Ivan Saric

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$888
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ivan Saric

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$850
N/A
N/A
$750
Settled
No
polymarket

Player A

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Player B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Player C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Player D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Player E

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This event group covers prediction markets on the winner of the 2026 Grand Chess Tour Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament, scheduled for June 29 - July 6, 2026. Markets are offered across Polymarket (individual player binary contracts plus an 'other' catch-all) and Kalshi (a single Yes/No contract covering ten named players). Resolution depends on official Grand Chess Tour declaration of a tournament winner by July 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi resolve on the same underlying fact: the official winner of the 2026 Grand Chess Tour Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament. The ten named players are identical across platforms, and both use the same deadline (July 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET) and cancellation/postponement logic.Primary resolution logic: Official Grand Chess Tour sources; credible reporting consensus as secondary source

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution occurs when the Grand Chess Tour officially declares a winner of the 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament
  • If the declared winner is one of the ten named players (Anish Giri, Maxime Vachier-Lagrave, Nodirbek Abdusattorov, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, Jorden Van Foreest, Bogdan-Daniel Deac, Ivan Saric, Gukesh Dommaraju, Vincent Keymer, Alireza Firouzja), that player's market resolves Yes on Kalshi and Yes on Polymarket; all other named-player markets resolve No
  • If the declared winner is not one of the ten named players, Polymarket resolves to 'Other' (or the unnamed-player catch-all); Kalshi resolves to No
  • If the tournament is cancelled, postponed, or partially completed with no winner declared by July 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to 'Other' and Kalshi resolves to No
  • If a named player becomes ineligible per Grand Chess Tour rules before the tournament, their corresponding market resolves No

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tournament Cancellation or Postponement: If the 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia is cancelled or postponed after July 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET with no winner declared, Polymarket resolves to 'Other' and Kalshi resolves to No.
  • Player Ineligibility: If a named player becomes ineligible per Grand Chess Tour rules, their individual market resolves to No; the winner (if declared) still resolves according to the core logic.
  • Unnamed Winner: If the tournament winner is not among the ten named players, Polymarket's 'someone else' or unnamed-player market resolves Yes; Kalshi resolves to No.
  • Tie or Co-Winners: If the Grand Chess Tour declares co-winners or a tie-break procedure, the official declaration of the primary or sole winner governs resolution.
Timing: Resolution occurs upon official Grand Chess Tour announcement of the tournament winner. If no winner is declared by July 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, markets resolve to 'Other' (Polymarket) or No (Kalshi) by that deadline.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Grand Chess Tour Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament scheduled for June 29 - July 6, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Grand Chess Tour Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament per the rules of the Grand Chess Tour, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 Grand Chess Tour Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament is cancelled, postponed, or partially completed after July 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Grand Chess Tour; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament will take place from June 29 to July 6, 2026. Each market resolves to Yes if the specified player wins the tournament. The tournament features rapid and blitz chess formats, and resolution is determined by the official tournament results. Only the player who finishes in first place according to the tournament's scoring system will trigger a Yes resolution for their corresponding market.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for the 2026 Grand Chess Tour Croatia winner. It displays real-time odds, trading volume, and consensus forecasts from both platforms, allowing you to compare how traders on each venue are pricing the outcome. The aggregated view shows which players command the highest implied probability across the combined market, helping you spot agreement or divergence between communities. Total liquidity and 24-hour activity metrics give context for market depth and recent trader interest in this chess event.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are typically more efficient than traditional sportsbooks for niche events such as chess tournaments, because they aggregate real-time trader conviction without the friction of fixed odds-setting. Sportsbooks must manage liability and margins, whereas prediction markets allow continuous price discovery. For the Croatia tournament, you may find prediction market odds reflect sharper, more up-to-date information about player form and field composition. However, sportsbook odds can occasionally offer value if they lag behind breaking news or player withdrawals that traders have already priced in.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Both platforms use different user bases, fee structures, and liquidity pools, which can create temporary price gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi may attract traders with different information sets or risk appetites, causing one platform to price a player higher than the other. Arbitrage opportunities can emerge if one venue lags in reflecting recent tournament news or player updates. Additionally, each platform's order-book depth and trading mechanics influence how quickly prices converge, so checking both venues before trading can reveal favorable entry or exit points.

Player withdrawals, injuries, or form changes leading up to the tournament will shift odds significantly. Recent classical or rapid tournament results, rating updates, and head-to-head records between top contenders can trigger repricing. Announcements about the final field composition or any rule changes to the Super Rapid and Blitz format may also influence trader sentiment. Media coverage highlighting a player's preparation or coaching changes can move prices, as can unexpected upsets in qualifying events. Close attention to chess news and player statements will help you anticipate market moves before they happen.