TOTAL VOLUME:
$147.9b
24H VOL:
$225,546,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,816,443,416
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,867,230,198
490,493
Markets across
36,414
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,838
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
I Knew It, I Knew You
- Kalshi
I Knew It, I Knew You - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 1, 2027
$
This market tracks whether the song Aperture will receive a nomination for Song of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards. On Kalshi, the probability that Aperture earns a Song of the Year nomination stands at 91.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official Grammy Awards nomination announcement, with the 69th Grammy Awards ceremony scheduled for November 2027 as the key milestone to monitor.
If The Fate of Ophelia has been nominated for Song of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Man I Need has been nominated for Song of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Aperture has been nominated for Song of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If I Just Might has been nominated for Song of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If Choosin' Texas has been nominated for Song of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. If So Easy (To Fall In Love) has been nominated for Song of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may focus on critical acclaim or industry buzz, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money behind their predictions. Discrepancies can arise from factors analysts might overlook, such as the influence of fan bases or unexpected campaign pushes. It’s interesting to observe how the market’s probabilities evolve as we approach the award ceremony, potentially diverging from or aligning with expert opinions.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official announcement of the Grammy Award for Song of the Year will serve as the basis for determining the winning contract. Trading will cease once the winner is declared, and contracts for the winning nominee will pay out, while those for other nominees will expire worthless. Keep an eye on official Grammy announcements as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements from influential artists or celebrities could boost a nominee’s chances. Unexpected performances or appearances during awards shows or promotional events could also shift sentiment. Furthermore, any significant media coverage or viral moments related to a song could influence trading activity. Public opinion, as gauged by streaming numbers and social media engagement, may also play a role in how traders adjust their positions leading up to Nov 1, 2027.