TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Carlos Alcaraz
- Kalshi
Carlos Alcaraz - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 16, 2026
Closed: Jul 16, 10:05 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The ESPYS annually honors the year's most outstanding athletes across various sports. This market tracks who will receive the Best Tennis Player award at the 2026 ceremony, recognizing exceptional performance and achievement in professional tennis during the award year.
Kalshi
The Best Tennis Player award at the 2026 ESPYS will be determined by the ceremony's voting and selection process. Resolution occurs when the official award winner is announced at the 2026 ESPYS event. Any of the specified players—Carlos Alcaraz, Elena Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka, or Jannik Sinner—winning the award results in a Yes resolution for their respective market. Additionally, if the ESPYS awards the Best Tennis Player honor to multiple recipients simultaneously (a tie), that outcome also resolves to Yes. The market accounts for all possible award scenarios within the specified player pool and tie conditions.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money commitments rather than subjective opinion. In this market, traders are incentivized to price in all available information—recent tournament results, injury reports, and public sentiment—creating a dynamic consensus. Analysts may lag behind market pricing or emphasize different criteria when ranking tennis talent. Comparing this market's implied probabilities to published expert rankings reveals where the crowd sees value or risk that conventional forecasters may have missed or underweighted.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each tennis player's chances of winning the award. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share trades between 0 and 100 cents, with the price reflecting the collective belief in that outcome. Buyers and sellers post limit orders, and the last executed trade price becomes the current odds. This continuous auction process ensures transparent, real-time pricing and allows traders to enter or exit positions at any time before the market closes.
This market resolves around Jul 17, 2026, following the conclusion of the 2026 ESPYS ceremony. The outcome is determined by the official award announcement and verified against credible public sources. Once the Best Tennis Player winner is confirmed, the market settles with winning shares paid in full and losing shares expiring worthless. Traders should monitor the event schedule and any official updates from ESPN to anticipate the exact resolution timing.
Major tennis tournaments, Grand Slam victories, and ranking changes will significantly influence odds as the 2026 season unfolds. Injuries or comebacks by top contenders can trigger sharp repricing. Media coverage, award-voting patterns from prior years, and endorsements or sponsorship announcements may shift trader sentiment. Late-season performance surges or slumps could elevate or diminish a player's perceived chances. Additionally, any official updates from ESPN regarding voting criteria or eligible nominees could reshape market expectations and drive trading volume spikes.
