TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which Netflix show will rank second in viewership in the United States during a specific week, based on the streaming platform's official rankings. Participants can speculate on whether particular series or specials will capture the second spot in audience engagement for that period.
Kalshi
Each market resolves based on whether the specified show appears in the #2 position on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published on October 13, 2026. The chart reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday, with all markets closing at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart's publication. All markets explicitly state that neither Netflix nor Kalshi endorses these speculative products, and any references to Netflix are purely descriptive and not indicative of affiliation or endorsement. The consistent secondary rules across all markets ensure uniform timing and disclaimer application for resolution verification.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on viewership data and critical reception, this market incorporates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of factors and potential surprises. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies or the market’s ability to quickly adapt to new information. It's common to see this market diverge from initial expectations, especially as new episodes are released or unexpected trends emerge. Comparing these odds to expert predictions can offer a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of each show topping the US Netflix charts. The current market prices are driven by supply and demand, influenced by a variety of factors including streaming data, social media buzz, and critical reviews.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the most-watched show on US Netflix for the relevant week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on publicly available data regarding the top shows on Netflix in the United States, as reported by a trusted source. The market will settle to 100 for the winning show and 0 for all others. Traders should monitor news and data releases leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential catalysts that could impact the outcome of this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Unexpected critical acclaim or negative reviews for a new show could shift trader sentiment. Major social media trends or viral moments related to a particular series could also drive volume and price changes. Furthermore, the release of trailers or promotional materials, or even announcements about renewal or cancellation, can all impact the perceived likelihood of a show topping the charts. Any significant news regarding viewership numbers or Netflix’s promotional efforts will likely influence trading activity in this market.
