TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which Netflix show will rank second in viewership in the United States during a specific week. Participants predict whether a particular show will achieve this position based on publicly available streaming data.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published on October 27, 2026, reflecting viewership for the week ending the previous Sunday. The markets will close at 11:59 PM ET on October 26, 2026, as Netflix updates its charts on Tuesdays. Each market corresponds to a specific show, and resolution depends solely on whether that show occupies the #2 position on the referenced chart. No endorsement from Netflix is implied, and all references serve descriptive purposes only.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for this specific event. While analysts often provide predictions about streaming viewership, these are typically qualitative assessments or estimates based on various factors. This market, however, represents a quantifiable, real-money forecast based on the collective judgment of traders. It will be interesting to see if the outcome of this market aligns with pre-event expert opinions regarding which series will achieve the #2 spot on US Netflix.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. Conversely, selling pressure decreases the price and probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top outcome, as indicated by the highest implied probability, is Will TYSON: Limited Series, though probabilities are subject to change based on trading activity.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the #2 most popular show on Netflix in the US will be determined based on publicly available viewership data released by Netflix or a reputable third-party data provider that tracks streaming performance. The resolution will reflect the series holding that position during the relevant measurement period, as reported by the data source.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major marketing campaigns or critical acclaim for a particular series could drive increased viewership and shift the odds. Unexpected release date changes or the emergence of a surprise hit show could also heavily influence trading activity. Furthermore, any news regarding Netflix’s content strategy or subscriber numbers could indirectly affect perceptions of a series’ potential success and, therefore, the probabilities reflected in this market.
