TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which film will rank second on the US Netflix movie charts for the week ending the Sunday before October 6, 2026. Participants speculate on whether specific movies will achieve this ranking based on viewer preferences and streaming trends during that period.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if its designated movie appears in the #2 position on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published on October 6, 2026. The chart reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday, with Netflix updating its charts every Tuesday. All markets close at 11:59 PM ET the Monday before the chart publication. These markets are independent speculations and carry no endorsement from Netflix; references to the platform are used descriptively only.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on pre-release buzz and historical data, this market incorporates the wisdom of the crowd, reacting to real-time viewership data and changing consumer preferences. Discrepancies can arise when unexpected trends emerge or when the market anticipates a surprise hit, something that traditional forecasts may not capture. It’s interesting to see how this market’s predictions evolve as new information becomes available, potentially differing from initial expert opinions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of a particular movie being the #2 most popular on US Netflix this week. The price of each contract reflects the current market consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a constantly updated assessment of the likely outcome. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome determined by identifying the #2 most popular movie on US Netflix for the relevant week, verified against credible public reporting. The determination will be based on official Netflix data or widely accepted third-party viewership metrics that accurately reflect the most-watched movies during that period. The resolution process aims to provide a clear and objective outcome based on verifiable data, ensuring a fair and transparent result for all participants in this market.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Unexpected critical acclaim or negative reviews for newly released movies could shift trader sentiment. Major social media trends or viral marketing campaigns could also influence viewership numbers. Furthermore, the release schedule of competing films on other streaming platforms or in theaters could impact Netflix’s viewership. Any significant news regarding cast members or production quality could also play a role, as traders constantly reassess probabilities based on the latest information available before this market’s resolution.
