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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 30, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jun 29, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Maternal Instinct will rank as the second most-watched movie in the United States on Netflix's weekly Top 10 chart. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—Maternal Instinct claiming the #2 spot—stands at 95.0%, while an alternative outcome holds 3.0%. Resolution depends on Netflix's official US movie rankings published on June 30, 2026, which will reveal the #2 film for the week ending June 29, 2026. Watch for Netflix's chart publication on June 30, 2026, to determine the final ranking.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on Netflix's official Top 10 US Movie rankings published on Tuesday, June 30, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday, June 28, 2026. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on Monday, June 29, 2026, one day before chart publication. A Yes resolution occurs if the specified movie achieves the #2 position on that published chart.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader behavior and financial incentives absent from published predictions. While entertainment analysts may rely on historical performance, marketing spend, and genre trends, this market aggregates the views of participants who stake capital on their convictions. Prediction markets tend to update faster when new information emerges—such as unexpected viewership patterns or competing releases—whereas analyst forecasts may lag behind evolving conditions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each possible outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective probability assigned by the market; a share trading at 0.65 implies a 65% chance of that outcome occurring. Liquidity and trading volume influence how quickly prices adjust, and wider bid-ask spreads may appear for less-traded titles, affecting execution costs for large orders.
This market resolves around Jun 30, 2026, once Netflix's official weekly top-10 rankings for the United States are published and verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by which film occupies the #2 position on Netflix's publicly reported movie chart for the relevant week. Resolution occurs automatically after the ranking data is confirmed, and traders' positions settle based on whether their chosen title matches the verified result.
Major catalysts include Netflix's release schedule announcements, unexpected viewership surges for specific titles, and competitive releases from other streaming platforms or theaters. Social media trends, celebrity endorsements, and critical reviews can shift viewer interest and alter predicted rankings. Additionally, real-time viewership data leaks or Netflix's own promotional pushes may influence trader expectations. Changes in competing films' performance or surprise cancellations could also reshape probabilities as participants reassess the competitive landscape.
