TOTAL VOLUME:
$147.9b
24H VOL:
$225,546,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,816,443,416
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,867,230,198
490,493
Markets across
36,414
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,838
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Doing Life
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Vol.
·
Resolved Oct 20, 2026
Closed: Oct 19, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which film will rank second on Netflix's US movie chart for the week ending Sunday, October 18, 2026, as published on Tuesday, October 20. Participants speculate on whether specific titles will achieve this position based on viewer preferences and streaming trends over the preceding days.
Kalshi
The event determines which movie appears in the second position on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published on October 20, 2026. The chart reflects viewing data from the week ending the previous Sunday, October 18, 2026. Markets close at 11:59 PM ET on Monday, October 19, 2026, to align with Netflix's Tuesday chart update schedule. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if its specified film occupies the #2 spot on the published chart; otherwise, it resolves to 'No.' All markets are independent, with no endorsement implied from Netflix. The outcome depends solely on Netflix's official chart data for that week.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the predictions within this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as those often focus on overall viewership numbers rather than ranking within Netflix’s catalog. However, if analysts were to predict the #2 movie on US Netflix, their forecasts could be compared to the implied probabilities offered by traders here. Discrepancies between the two could indicate areas where the market believes analysts are over or underestimating a film’s potential performance, or where the market has access to unique information.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of that outcome’s probability. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new data and reflect changing expectations about which movie will achieve the #2 spot on US Netflix.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the #2 most popular movie on US Netflix will be determined based on publicly available data regarding total viewing hours for the week prior to the resolution date. The data will be sourced from widely recognized and trusted sources that track Netflix viewership, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. A major marketing push for a particular film, positive critical reviews, or strong social media buzz could all increase a movie’s chances of reaching the #2 spot. Conversely, negative reviews or the release of a highly anticipated new movie could decrease a film’s probability. Unexpected changes to Netflix’s content library or algorithm could also play a role. Any news related to the performance of competing films will likely influence trading activity in this market.
