TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Earrings - Malcolm Todd
- Polymarket
Earrings - Malcolm Todd - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 4, 2026
Closed: Sep 4, 12:22 PM EST
Polymarket
Miley Cyrus & Dolly Parton Perform “Wrecking Ball” / “I Will Always Love You” | Full Performance
Description
This event group tracks whether specific songs will rank #2 on the US Spotify chart for the week labeled September 4. The markets resolve based on Spotify's official chart data for that week.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets resolve using the same criteria: the second most-streamed song on Spotify's US chart for the week labeled September 4, with ties broken alphabetically.Primary resolution logic: Official Spotify chart data for the week labeled September 4Core resolution logic:
- The market resolves to the song occupying the second-highest position on Spotify's Weekly Top Songs - USA chart for the week labeled September 4.
- If multiple songs tie for any position, ties are broken by alphabetical order of the songs' titles.
- If Spotify does not release its #2 song for the week labeled September 4 by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market defaults to "Other".
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Spotify Data Delay: If Spotify does not release the chart by the deadline, all markets resolve to "Other".
- Tie-Breaker: Alphabetical order of song titles determines ranking in case of ties.
Polymarket
Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs in the U.S. and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the second most-streamed song in the U.S. on Spotify for the week labeled September 4. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If Spotify does not release its #2 song for the week labeled September 4 by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The Weekly Top Songs - USA chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify. Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Spotify and Polymarket. Spotify and related marks are the property of Spotify AB and its group companies.
Kalshi
The event determines the runner-up music video on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos United States chart for August 30, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that video ranks exactly #2 on the chart for that date. The resolution relies solely on YouTube Charts' official data for the specified date and does not consider any other performance metrics or interpretations. All markets are independent, with each video having an equal opportunity to achieve the #2 position. Neither YouTube nor Kalshi endorses these markets, and references to YouTube are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Several signals could shift probabilities in this market before it settles. A surprise collaboration, viral TikTok trend, or last-minute playlist addition by major influencers might boost a song’s streams overnight. Conversely, negative press or technical glitches affecting playback could depress performance. Real-time streaming spikes reported on platforms like Spotify Charts or Apple Music will be closely watched, as will social media buzz around competing tracks. Any sudden change in listener sentiment—driven by events, news, or meme culture—has the potential to dramatically reshape odds in the final days.