TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 1:30 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs in the U.S. and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the second most-streamed song in the U.S. on Spotify for the week labeled October 9. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If Spotify does not release its #2 song for the week labeled October 9 by October 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The Weekly Top Songs - USA chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify. Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Spotify and Polymarket. Spotify and related marks are the property of Spotify AB and its group companies.
Polymarket
Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs in the U.S. and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the second most-streamed song in the U.S. on Spotify for the week labeled October 9. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If Spotify does not release its #2 song for the week labeled October 9 by October 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The Weekly Top Songs - USA chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify. Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Spotify and Polymarket. Spotify and related marks are the property of Spotify AB and its group companies.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective prediction differs from expert opinion. Currently, analysts are divided on which song will reach the #2 spot on the US Spotify chart this week, with varying levels of confidence in several contenders. This market provides a unique perspective, aggregating the insights of many individuals, potentially identifying overlooked factors or offering a more accurate assessment than any single analyst. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty surrounding the event’s outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each song being #2. The price of each share reflects the probability of that song achieving the top spot, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by new information, shifts in sentiment, and trading activity. Higher demand for shares in a particular song will increase its price, indicating a growing belief in its likelihood of success, while increased selling pressure will lower the price.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official US Spotify chart is published and the song ranked #2 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official ranking provided by Spotify, representing the most listened-to songs in the United States during the specified week. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome, reflecting the actual performance of songs on the platform. The market will then settle based on which song held the #2 position.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 9, 2026. Unexpected surges in streams for a particular song, driven by viral trends on social media or inclusion in popular playlists, could rapidly shift the odds. Major artist endorsements or promotional campaigns could also influence listener behavior. Additionally, news regarding potential controversies or releases from competing artists could impact the market. Any developments affecting song popularity or listener engagement have the potential to alter the perceived probability of each song reaching the #2 position on the US Spotify chart.
