TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 2:04 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under “Paid Apps”, as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click “Apps” at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to “Top Paid Apps” and click “See All.” Then under “Paid Apps” in the “Top Charts” section, you’ll see the list that will be used as the resolution source for this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/iphone/charts/36?chart=top-paid).
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under “Paid Apps”, as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click “Apps” at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to “Top Paid Apps” and click “See All.” Then under “Paid Apps” in the “Top Charts” section, you’ll see the list that will be used as the resolution source for this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/iphone/charts/36?chart=top-paid).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts regarding which app will achieve the #2 ranking. While analysts often rely on download numbers and marketing spend, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of factors. Discrepancies between the two can highlight overlooked variables or differing interpretations of available data. It's important to remember that analyst predictions are often point estimates, while this market provides a probabilistic view of the potential outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of the app being #2 paid on October 9. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of market sentiment. The current price indicates what percentage of the total market cap a share costs, effectively representing the implied probability of success.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The ranking of paid apps in the US Apple App Store will be assessed at the specified time, and the market will settle based on which app holds the #2 position. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from the Apple App Store and will be determined by the platform’s standard procedures for verifying such information.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. A major marketing campaign launched by a competing app, a significant update to a leading app, or negative press surrounding a frontrunner could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected changes in Apple’s App Store policies or algorithm could also influence rankings. Furthermore, any news regarding app downloads, user reviews, or revenue figures could impact the perceived probability of an app reaching the #2 position, leading to fluctuations in trading volume and price.
