TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
These markets track which song will rank second on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week ending October 31, 2026. Each market focuses on a specific song or artist, allowing participants to speculate on which will achieve this chart position. The outcome depends entirely on the official Billboard rankings published that week.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified song appears in the #2 position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of October 31, 2026. The Billboard Hot 100 is a widely recognized ranking of the top-performing singles in the United States, based on a combination of sales, streaming, and radio airplay data. All markets are independent, meaning the resolution of one does not affect the others. None of these markets are endorsed by Billboard, and any references to Billboard or the Hot 100 are used descriptively. The resolution is solely based on the official chart published by Billboard for the specified week.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for this specific event. However, generally, prediction markets often outperform polls and expert opinions, as they aggregate the wisdom of many individuals with skin in the game. This market reflects a continuously updated assessment of probabilities based on real money being wagered, potentially offering a more accurate prediction of which song will be number two than a single analyst’s opinion. The dynamic nature of this market allows for rapid adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a song reaching the number two spot. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and offers, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. This creates a dynamic and efficient way to forecast the future, driven by the collective intelligence of the crowd.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of October 31, 2026, is published and the song holding the number two position is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle to 100 if the song predicted is indeed at number two, and 0 otherwise. The resolution is based on the official chart data released by Billboard, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected releases from major artists, shifts in radio airplay, and viral trends on social media platforms could all influence a song’s chart position. Major promotional campaigns or controversies surrounding artists could also move the market. Furthermore, any news regarding album releases or tour announcements from competing artists could affect the probabilities reflected in this market. Monitoring music industry news and social media trends will be key to understanding potential shifts in the odds.
