TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 31, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks which song will hold the number two position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart during the week of June 6, 2026. On Kalshi, "Choosin' Texas" commands 86.0% probability as the leading outcome, according to the platform's assessment. Resolution will be determined by the official Billboard Hot 100 rankings released for that chart week, with the final outcome confirmed by June 10, 2026.
The market resolves on Jun 10, 2026, after the official Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of June 6, 2026 is published. The outcome is determined by which song officially ranks at position number two on that chart. Billboard's methodology incorporates sales, streaming, and radio airplay data collected during the tracking week. Once the chart is released and verified, the market settles based on the actual number-two position, and winning traders receive their payout while losing positions expire worthless.
Several catalysts can shift odds for the number-two position. Major new music releases or surprise drops from established artists can disrupt chart expectations and redirect streaming and sales volume. Viral social media moments, TikTok trends, or celebrity endorsements can accelerate a song's momentum. Radio station playlist additions or removals influence airplay counts, a key chart component. Chart performance of competing songs in the top ten affects relative positioning. Streaming platform algorithm changes or promotional campaigns can boost visibility. Industry news such as artist controversies or collaborations may impact momentum. Real-time streaming and sales data releases throughout the tracking week provide traders with updated signals to reassess probabilities before the final chart publication.