TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 21, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
A song will rank at the second position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of June 27, 2026. Multiple songs are tracked across this outcome.
Resolution is determined by the official Billboard Hot 100 chart published for the week of June 27, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if any of the specified songs achieves the #2 ranking on that chart. Billboard charts are based on contemporary hit radio airplay, sales data, and streaming activity. This market is not endorsed by Billboard and references to Billboard and the Hot 100 are descriptive only.
On Kalshi, the #2 position for the Billboard Hot 100 chart week of June 27, 2026 is priced as a set of binary or multiple-outcome contracts reflecting the probability each song reaches that rank. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices move based on trader activity, new music releases, streaming momentum, and real-time chart performance signals. Each outcome contract trades between 0 and 100, with the price representing the market's implied probability. As the resolution date approaches and more chart data becomes available, prices adjust to reflect updated expectations about which track will ultimately claim the number two spot.
The market resolves on Jul 1, 2026, after the official Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of June 27, 2026 is published. The outcome is determined by which song officially ranks at number two on that chart according to Billboard's methodology. Billboard calculates rankings using a weighted formula that combines sales, streaming, and radio airplay data collected during the tracking week. Once the chart is finalized and publicly released, the prediction market settles based on the definitive number two position, and winning positions are credited accordingly.
Several factors can shift odds for the number two position. Major new music releases from established artists or surprise drops can dramatically alter chart dynamics. Streaming surges driven by viral social media moments, playlist placements on major platforms, or celebrity endorsements impact a song's momentum. Radio airplay increases or decreases influence chart position. Chart performance of competing songs—especially movements of the number one track—can create ripple effects for the number two spot. Industry news, award show performances, and unexpected chart debuts all provide new information that traders incorporate into their pricing, causing real-time odds adjustments as the resolution date approaches.