TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
I Knew It, I Knew You
- Kalshi
I Knew It, I Knew You - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 30, 2026
Closed: Jun 28, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which song will hold the #2 position on the Billboard Hot 100 singles chart for the week ending July 4, 2026. The #2 position represents the second most popular song in the United States during that week.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the official Billboard Hot 100 chart published for the week of July 4, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific song title; if that song achieves the #2 ranking on the chart for that week, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Only one song can hold the #2 position in any given week, so only one outcome can resolve affirmatively. This market is not endorsed by Billboard and references to Billboard and the Hot 100 are descriptive only.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional music industry analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money commitments from traders rather than expert opinion alone. While analysts may rely on radio airplay, streaming data, and historical trends, this market aggregates the collective judgment of participants who have financial incentive to forecast accurately. Comparing the implied probability here to published predictions from music publications or chart analysts can reveal where market sentiment differs from conventional wisdom about which track will land at number two.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each possible outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the market's collective assessment of that outcome's likelihood, with prices ranging from near zero to one dollar. As new information emerges—such as streaming momentum, radio support, or competing releases—traders adjust their positions, moving the price and shifting implied probabilities in real time.
This market resolves around Jul 8, 2026, once the official Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of July 4, 2026 is published and verified. The outcome is determined by which song actually occupies the number-two position on that chart, confirmed through credible public reporting from Billboard and music industry sources. Traders' positions settle based on the verified chart data, with payouts awarded to those who correctly predicted the outcome.
Major catalysts for this market include new song releases from top artists, unexpected streaming surges, radio playlist additions, and chart performance in the weeks leading up to July 4, 2026. Award show performances, viral social media moments, and celebrity endorsements can rapidly shift trader sentiment. Additionally, competing releases and the performance of songs already holding top positions will influence expectations about which track claims the number-two spot. Real-time streaming and sales data releases typically trigger significant price movements as traders reassess probabilities.
