TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
- Kalshi
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 28, 2026
Closed: Jul 26, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The Billboard 200 chart ranks the top-selling and most-streamed albums in the United States for a given week. This event asks which album will hold the second position on the chart for the week ending August 1, 2026.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the official Billboard 200 chart ranking for the week of August 1, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if any of the specified albums—CONFESSIONS II, you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love, DANDELION, I'm The Problem, ICEMAN, The Great Divide, xperiment, Thriller, Visitor, Toby Keith 35 Biggest Hits, One Thing At A Time, Number Ones, S.K.A.T.E., Stick Season, or The Art of Loving—achieves the #2 position on that chart. Only one album can occupy the #2 position in any given week, so only one outcome will resolve to Yes. This market is not endorsed by Billboard and references to Billboard marks are descriptive only.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional music industry analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-time trader conviction rather than relying on static pre-release projections. While analysts may rely on advance metrics like playlist adds and radio airplay, this market reflects dynamic expectations shaped by breaking news, surprise announcements, and shifting consumer interest. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd sees upside or downside relative to expert opinion, making the market a useful cross-check for anyone tracking chart performance closely.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell shares representing each possible outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective probability assigned by the market; a share trading at 0.65 implies roughly a 65% chance of that outcome occurring. As new information emerges—album delays, surprise releases, chart momentum—traders adjust their positions, and prices update in real time to reflect the latest consensus.
This market resolves around Aug 5, 2026, once the Billboard 200 chart for the week of August 1, 2026 is officially published and verified. The outcome is determined by which album actually occupies the number-two position on that chart, confirmed through credible public reporting from Billboard and the music industry. Traders should monitor chart tracking services and official announcements in the days leading up to resolution to stay informed of any last-minute shifts.
Major catalog announcements, surprise album drops, and celebrity endorsements can shift odds significantly. Chart-tracking data released by services like Hits Data Network and MRC Data often move the market as they provide real-time sales and streaming snapshots. Radio airplay surges, viral social media moments, and competing releases from major artists all influence consumer behavior and chart positioning. Additionally, any delays or format changes announced by contending artists will trigger repricing as traders reassess probabilities.
