TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which Netflix show will rank second in global viewership during a specific week, based on the streaming platform's official rankings. It reflects viewer preferences and trends in content consumption over a defined period.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if its designated show appears in the second position on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show chart published on October 13, 2026. The chart reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday, with all markets closing at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart's release. All markets explicitly state that they are not endorsed by Netflix, and any references to the platform are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional polls or media predictions, as traders directly put capital behind their beliefs. If analysts widely predict a certain show will be successful, but the market odds show lower confidence, it could indicate traders foresee challenges not captured in conventional analysis. Discrepancies can arise from differing information access or varying interpretations of available data, making this market a valuable counterpoint to standard forecasts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about which show will be the #2 Global Netflix show. The price of each contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, constantly updating the market’s assessment. As more volume is traded, the prices tend to become more efficient, reflecting a broader range of opinions and insights.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the #2 Global Netflix show for the relevant week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on publicly available viewership data released by Netflix or a reputable third-party source tracking global streaming statistics. The market will settle to 100 for the show that meets the criteria, and 0 for all other possibilities. Traders should monitor news and data releases leading up to the resolution date to stay informed.
Several signals could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major announcements from Netflix regarding new show releases or viewership numbers for existing series would be key catalysts. Unexpected critical acclaim or negative reviews for a show could also shift trader sentiment. Social media trends and online buzz surrounding different shows can also influence the market, as can any news impacting the availability or promotion of competing titles. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential price movements in this market.
