TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which new or ongoing Netflix show will secure the second-highest position in global viewership for the week ending on Sunday, October 5, 2026. The outcome depends entirely on Netflix's official rankings released the following Tuesday, October 6, reflecting audience engagement over the prior seven days.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if its specified show occupies the #2 position on Netflix's Global Top 10 Shows chart published on October 6, 2026. All markets share identical secondary rules: Netflix charts update on Tuesdays, so trading will close at 11:59 PM ET on Monday, October 5, 2026. The published chart reflects viewing data from the week ending the previous Sunday (October 5, 2026). None of these markets imply endorsement by Netflix; references are purely descriptive and not indicative of any affiliation between Netflix and the platform hosting these markets.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates an ability to incorporate a wider range of information than traditional forecasts, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. While analysts may focus on specific factors like critical reception or star power, this market reflects the aggregated beliefs of many individuals, factoring in buzz, social media trends, and even unexpected events. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market perceives risks or opportunities that analysts may have overlooked.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders are constantly buying and selling contracts representing their beliefs about which show will be the most popular. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds based on their own research and analysis, and the market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available. The current volume traded is $10,323, indicating the level of interest in this event.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the most popular show on Netflix is verified against credible public reporting of viewership data. The resolution will reflect which show garnered the highest global viewership during the specified week. The market’s outcome is determined by independently verifiable data, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders should monitor news and data releases related to Netflix viewership as the resolution date approaches to inform their trading decisions.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Unexpected critical acclaim or negative reviews for a newly released show could shift trader sentiment. Major social media trends, viral marketing campaigns, or celebrity endorsements could also impact perceived popularity. Additionally, Netflix’s own promotional efforts, such as featuring a show prominently on its homepage, could influence viewership and, consequently, the market. Any significant news related to the shows currently contending for the top spot has the potential to drive price fluctuations in this market.
