TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which film will rank second in global viewership on Netflix during a specific week. The outcome depends on audience preferences and viewing trends over that period, reflecting popular choices in entertainment.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if its designated movie appears at the #2 position on the Netflix Top 10 Global Movie chart published on October 6, 2026. All markets share identical secondary rules: Netflix charts update on Tuesdays, so trading will close at 11:59 PM ET the preceding Monday. The October 6 chart reflects viewing data from the week ending the previous Sunday. None of these markets imply any endorsement from Netflix, and all references to the platform are used descriptively without suggesting affiliation or approval from Netflix or Kalshi.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for the top movie on Netflix. While some analysts may favor critically acclaimed films, this market is driven by traders predicting what will actually be the most watched. This often incorporates factors beyond critical reception, such as marketing spend, genre popularity, and social media buzz. Discrepancies between this market and analyst predictions can present opportunities to capitalize on differing viewpoints regarding viewing habits.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more trades occur, the prices adjust, providing a real-time assessment of expectations for the Global Netflix movie market. Traders are constantly evaluating information and adjusting their positions, which influences the price discovery process.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the most-watched Netflix movie for the week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official viewership data released by Netflix or a widely recognized third-party source tracking Netflix performance. This data will be used to determine which film garnered the highest number of views globally during the specified week, establishing the winning outcome for this market.
Several signals could significantly move this market before Oct 6, 2026. Major marketing campaigns launched by Netflix for specific films, unexpected viral trends on social media, or positive/negative critical reviews could all influence trader behavior. Furthermore, the release of trailers or new content featuring popular actors could shift expectations. Any news regarding subscriber numbers or Netflix's overall content strategy could also impact the perceived probabilities of different movies topping the charts, creating trading opportunities in this market.
