TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Don't Say Good Luck
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 18, 2026
Closed: Aug 17, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which movie will rank second on Netflix's Global Top 10 Movies chart for the week ending the Sunday before August 18, 2026. Participants speculate on whether specific films will achieve this ranking based on viewer engagement over that period.
Kalshi
The event determines which film occupies the #2 position on Netflix's Global Top 10 Movies chart in the week ending the Sunday before August 18, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific movie, resolving to 'Yes' if that film ranks exactly second on the chart published on August 18, 2026. All markets share identical secondary rules: Netflix updates its charts on Tuesdays, so trading will close at 11:59 PM ET the Monday before August 18. The published chart reflects viewership data from the preceding week. None of these markets imply endorsement by Netflix, which is referenced only descriptively. Resolution depends solely on the official Netflix chart ranking for the specified week.
Frequently asked questions
Compared to analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of viewer preferences. Analysts may weigh factors like production budget and star power, while traders react quickly to early streaming trends, social media buzz, and weekly performance data. This can lead to notable differences, especially when a film unexpectedly gains or loses momentum during its first few days of release.
This market resolves around Aug 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the weekly Netflix viewership rankings are verified against credible public sources. The finishing position of each released film that week will determine the winner, based on the official streaming data published by Netflix or a trusted third-party analytics firm.
Key signals that could shift this market include weekly Netflix viewership updates, strong social media reactions or viral moments for competing films, major award nominations or wins, and any unexpected events such as CONTROVERSIES or technical issues affecting streaming availability. Traders will also watch for significant drops in viewership for early leaders, which could open the door for other titles to climb into the second position.
