TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This set of markets tracks which film will rank as the second most-watched movie on Netflix globally during the week ending the Sunday before October 20, 2026. Participants speculate on the popularity of various titles based on viewer engagement over that specific period.
Kalshi
Each market resolves based on whether a specified movie appears in the second position on Netflix's Top 10 Global Movies chart for the week ending the Sunday before October 20, 2026. The Netflix charts update every Tuesday, so the market will close at 11:59 PM ET on Monday, October 19, 2026. All markets share identical secondary rules regarding chart publication timing and disclaimers stating that neither Netflix nor Kalshi endorses these markets or any associated products. The outcome for each market depends solely on the Netflix chart ranking for the defined week, with no additional performance or contextual factors considered beyond the specified chart position.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market aggregates information from a wider range of sources and perspectives than traditional analyst reports. If analysts widely predict a certain movie will be the most popular, we’d expect to see its price on Kalshi reflect that expectation. However, discrepancies can arise if market participants have access to unique data or anticipate unexpected shifts in viewership, offering a potentially more accurate view of the likely outcome than relying solely on expert predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different movies being the top global Netflix film, and the price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are influenced by news, social media trends, and viewership data, creating a dynamic and responsive pricing mechanism for forecasting the most popular movie.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the most popular movie on Netflix globally for the week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on Netflix’s official rankings or widely accepted third-party data sources that track Netflix viewership. It’s important to note that the resolution is based on the most popular movie during the specified week, and any changes to Netflix’s ranking methodology will be considered during the resolution process to ensure a fair and accurate outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major marketing campaigns for new movie releases, critical reviews, and social media buzz all have the potential to influence viewership. Unexpected drops in viewership for currently popular movies, or the release of a highly anticipated film, could also cause substantial shifts in the odds. Furthermore, any news regarding Netflix’s content strategy or subscriber numbers could indirectly impact the market, as it affects the overall landscape of available movies and potential viewership.
