TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Vol.
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Resolved Sep 18, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Sep 18, 2:05 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's important to note that there aren't widely available, direct analyst forecasts specifically predicting an app's ranking in the US App Store on a given day. However, general app industry analysis often discusses potential contenders and download trends. This market provides a unique, real-time view of collective prediction, which may differ from traditional analyst opinions due to the wisdom of the crowd effect. Comparing this market’s outcome to post-event reporting on app store rankings will reveal whether the market accurately reflected expectations.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of the event occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.
This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the ranking of apps in the US Apple App Store will be checked to determine if any app held the #2 position on September 18. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from the Apple App Store itself, ensuring transparency and objectivity in determining the result of this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major app releases from prominent developers, significant marketing campaigns, or unexpected news regarding popular apps could all shift trading activity. Positive or negative press coverage about specific apps, or changes in Apple’s App Store algorithms, could also play a role. Any event that dramatically alters app download rates or user engagement is likely to be reflected in the price movement of this market as traders adjust their predictions.
