TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 15, 2026
Closed: Jun 15, 12:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader conviction and aggregate dispersed information about app store rankings, user downloads, and viral trends. Unlike traditional analyst forecasts, which rely on published reports or expert opinion, market prices update continuously as new data emerges. App store rankings are highly dynamic and influenced by algorithm changes, marketing campaigns, and user behavior shifts. Comparing market odds to any available analyst commentary or historical ranking patterns can help you assess whether traders are pricing in known catalysts or overlooking emerging signals in the mobile app ecosystem.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, each potential outcome—representing a specific app that could rank #2—is priced as a separate contract. The price of each contract reflects the probability traders assign to that outcome, ranging from near-zero to near-100. You can buy or sell shares in any outcome, and your profit or loss is determined by the final resolution price. Liquidity and spreads vary by outcome popularity; more-discussed or higher-probability apps typically have tighter bid-ask spreads and deeper order books than niche or lower-probability contenders.
The market resolves on Jun 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official ranking of free applications in the US Apple App Store at that time. The app occupying the #2 position in the free category—as publicly displayed by Apple—will be the winning outcome. All other outcomes resolve to zero. This is a factual, verifiable event tied to Apple's published rankings, ensuring a clear and objective settlement.
Major catalysts include app store algorithm updates, viral social media moments, celebrity endorsements, and new feature launches by competing apps. Seasonal trends, holiday promotions, and media coverage can drive rapid download surges. App store optimization changes, pricing adjustments, and cross-platform marketing campaigns also influence rankings. Additionally, user sentiment shifts, app crashes or outages, and competitive app releases can reshape the top-free landscape. Traders monitor app review scores, download velocity, and press announcements to anticipate ranking shifts before they occur on June 15.
