TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 18, 3:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on the outcome of a specific Rainbow Six Siege match between two professional esports teams scheduled for September 18, 2026. The result depends on which team secures a victory in their broader league stage, influencing the resolution of this particular contest. The market accounts for various scenarios if the match itself is altered or not played as scheduled.
The market resolves based on which team, 100 Thieves or Spacestation Gaming, wins the North America League Stage 2 2026, specifically affecting their Rainbow Six Siege match scheduled for September 18, 2026, at 2:00 PM EDT. If either team achieves this league-stage victory, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If the scheduled match is postponed beyond 48 hours, cancelled, or forfeited prior to any play, the market resolves to the fair market price. If the match begins but is later forfeited, the result follows the official outcome declared by the governing league or tournament organizer. Kalshi clarifies it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from those found at sportsbooks, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd versus the assessments of professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on team statistics and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs, potentially identifying mispriced probabilities. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, biases, or simply a wider range of perspectives contributing to the prediction market's price discovery process. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts, potentially offering opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the 100 Thieves vs. Spacestation Gaming match. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, signaling a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and converge towards a collective prediction about the match's result.
This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the 100 Thieves vs. Spacestation Gaming match, as declared by the governing body of the esports league. The platform will verify the result against publicly available and trusted sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event outcome. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will be paid out according to the market price at resolution.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Sep 18, 2026. News regarding player form, team strategies, or unexpected roster changes could all influence trader sentiment. Major upsets in other matches leading up to the event, or announcements about potential rule changes, could also shift probabilities. Even social media buzz and public opinion, if widespread, can impact trading activity. Any information that alters perceptions of the 100 Thieves’ or Spacestation Gaming’s chances of winning is likely to cause fluctuations in the market price.