TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 9, 4:00 PM EST
Kalshi
100 Thieves and M80 compete in Map 2 of their Rainbow Six Siege match during the North America League Stage 1 2026 season on July 9, 2026. The outcome depends on which team successfully wins the map.
Map 2 resolution is determined by which team wins the map in the North America League Stage 1 2026: 100 Thieves vs. M80 R6 match scheduled for July 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM EDT. The market resolves to Yes for whichever team wins the map.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk; prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of traders risking real capital. This market may show higher or lower implied probability than major sportsbooks, depending on whether traders believe the consensus line undervalues or overvalues one team. Comparing the two can reveal where smart money sees value, though both should be viewed as independent signals rather than confirmations of each other.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-book trading, where buyers and sellers set the odds by placing bids and asks on outcome shares. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the marginal trade—the last transaction—rather than an average or weighted consensus. As new information emerges or trader conviction shifts, the price adjusts in real time. Higher prices indicate stronger belief in that outcome; lower prices suggest skepticism. Volume and bid-ask spreads reveal how confident and liquid the market is at any given moment.
This market resolves around Jul 9, 2026, once the Map 2 result is finalized and verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome will be confirmed based on the official match result reported by the league or tournament organizer. Until that point, traders can continue to buy and sell shares as new information—team form, roster updates, or live-match developments—becomes available. Early resolution is possible if the match is cancelled or postponed; the platform will communicate any changes to the resolution timeline.
Key catalysts include roster changes, injury announcements, recent team performance, and head-to-head map history between the two squads. Live-match momentum during Map 1 or earlier rounds can shift trader expectations for Map 2. Coaching adjustments, player substitutions, or tactical surprises revealed in prior games often trigger repricing. Media coverage, expert predictions, and community sentiment on social platforms may also influence trader behavior. As the match date approaches, any official statements about format changes or unusual circumstances could spark volatility in this market.