TOTAL VOLUME:

$148.4b

24H VOL:

$209,734,046

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,817,056,367

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,865,708,956

470,731

Markets across

35,423

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,810

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA

Science and Technology

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

polymarket

opinion

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Total volume:

$2,693,524

Volume 24h:

$1,860,328

395,814,372%

Liquidity:

$56,644

1%

Open interest:

$98,042N/A

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

all

2 markets

Opinion

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 31, 2027

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Amount

$

Trade on

opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 4.1¢ buys you 2,439 shares | Odds: 25% Total Payout: $2,439 | Net Profit: $2,339 Multiplier: 24.39x | ROI: 2,339% APY not meaningful 67 days to resolution

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

opinion

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

25%

Yes 24.9¢

No 95.9¢

—

N/A

$1,860,328

0%

N/A

N/A

2mo 1w

active

polymarket

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

1%

Yes 1.5¢

No 98.7¢

0.2¢

$56,644

$833,196

0%

0%

N/A

3mo 1w 2d

active

PH Consensus

1.4%

Yes 13.2¢

No 97.3¢

Avg: 0.2¢

Max: 0.2¢

Total markets: 2

Intro

This market tracks the probability of at least one earthquake with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occurring anywhere in the world between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Currently, the consensus probability of this event occurring is 24.9%, as aggregated from Polymarket and Opinion. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef) serves as the official resolution source, with an alternative credible source considered if USGS data is unavailable by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET. Keep an eye on USGS reporting as we approach the end of the betting period on December 31, 2026, to see if any significant seismic activity is recorded.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical resolution criteria, primary source (USGS), timing windows, and edge-case handling procedures.Primary resolution logic: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef); alternative credible source if USGS data unavailable by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Core resolution logic:

Market resolves YES if one or more earthquakes with magnitude 10.0 or higher are recorded anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET
Market resolves NO if no such earthquakes appear on the resolution source by the final deadline
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, the market remains open for 24 hours to allow for magnitude revisions
If a substantial earthquake occurs within the market timeframe but does not appear on USGS by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET pending data publication
If the earthquake has not appeared on the primary source by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET, an alternative credible resolution source will be used

Edge cases & clarifications:

Magnitude Revision After Registration: If an earthquake is initially recorded below 10.0 but revised upward to 10.0 or higher within 24 hours of registration, the market resolves YES. If revised downward below 10.0 after 24 hours, the market resolves NO based on the final recorded magnitude.
Data Delay Beyond December 31, 2026: If a qualifying earthquake occurs before December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET but is not published on USGS until after that date, the market extends to January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET. If still unpublished by then, an alternative credible source is consulted.
Multiple Earthquakes: If multiple earthquakes of 10.0 or higher occur during the timeframe, the market resolves YES. Only one qualifying event is required.
Boundary Timing: An earthquake must occur between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) to qualify. Events outside this window do not trigger resolution.

Timing: Resolution occurs 24 hours after a qualifying earthquake is registered on the USGS source, or by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET if no qualifying earthquake appears, whichever comes first. If an alternative source is needed, resolution occurs within a reasonable timeframe after that source confirms or denies the event.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Opinion

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Opinion, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on the probability of a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake occurring before Feb 1, 2027. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $2,693,524, with $2 traded in the last 24 hours. This indicates significant interest in the possibility of such an event. The dashboard provides a combined view of the odds, allowing traders to see how the market is pricing this risk across different venues. The current spread between Polymarket and Opinion is 23.5.

Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While expert seismologists assess the likelihood of a 10.0+ earthquake based on geological data and modeling, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. This can lead to divergences, as market participants may incorporate factors not fully captured in conventional analyses. The current pricing on this market suggests a different probability than many publicly available expert opinions, offering a unique signal for those following this scientific question.

Prices on Polymarket and Opinion for the 10.0+ earthquake market can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base, trading volume, and liquidity, which can influence price discovery. Additionally, differing interface designs and fee structures might attract different types of traders. Currently, Polymarket currently favors 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? at 1.4%, while Opinion leans toward 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? at 24.9%, demonstrating these differing perspectives.

This market resolves around Feb 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake has been officially recorded by a recognized seismological authority before the resolution date. The outcome will be determined by examining data from these authorities to confirm whether such an event occurred, providing a clear and objective determination of the market’s result.

Several events could significantly impact the pricing of this market. Major aftershocks following large earthquakes, new research on fault lines and seismic activity, or announcements from geological surveys regarding increased risk in specific regions could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected discoveries related to earthquake prediction technology could also influence the market. Furthermore, any significant news regarding the potential for a large earthquake in a populated area is likely to cause volatility in this market as traders adjust their positions.