TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Person 2
- Polymarket
Person 2 - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Apr 1, 2027
Will Person 2 be the #1 searched actor on Google this year?
$
Description
This group forecasts which actor will be the most searched on Google globally in 2026, as determined by Google's official 'Year in Search' list. The markets aim to predict who will generate the highest search interest throughout the year.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket includes numerous 'Person X' options, significantly expanding the potential outcomes and introducing SKU risk, while Kalshi focuses on a predefined set of actors.Hero tip: Consider the increased uncertainty from Polymarket's broad scope. Kalshi's limited options may offer more focused trading opportunities.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on Google's official 'Year in Search' list, encompassing a very large number of potential actors, including generic 'Person X' options. This creates a very wide outcome space.
- Kalshi: Resolves based on whether a specific, pre-defined actor is ranked #1 on Google's 'Year in Search' list. The scope is limited to the actors listed on Kalshi.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "Actors" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Entertainment → Actors. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the "Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Actors" section of Google's official Year in Search 2026 – Global list. If any listed actor is ranked as the #1 search in that specific section for 2026, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If Google does not publish the Year in Search 2026 Global - Actors section during 2026, all markets resolve to No. The report includes multiple categories such as Searches, News, Passings, and People, but only the Actors category is relevant for these markets. No endorsement or affiliation exists between Google and the market operator; references to Google are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may rely on subjective factors like critical acclaim or box office projections, while this market reflects real-money wagers based on public interest as measured by search volume. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when an actor gains unexpected popularity through viral trends or unforeseen events. The market’s price action provides a dynamic, data-driven assessment of who is capturing the public’s attention, potentially identifying candidates overlooked by conventional analysis.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may diverge due to differing trader demographics, liquidity, and market-specific rules. Polymarket currently favors Will Person 2 be the #1 searched actor on Google this year? at 58.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Inde Navarrette be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Actors list? at 54.0%. These differences can also arise from variations in how each platform handles trading fees or position limits. Furthermore, initial market sentiment on each platform can create self-reinforcing price movements, leading to temporary discrepancies even if traders ultimately agree on the most likely outcome.
This market resolves around Apr 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Google’s official “Year in Search” report for 2026 will be the determining factor, specifically the list of top-searched actors globally. The actor appearing at the top of that list will be considered the winner of this market. The resolution will be based on publicly available data and will not rely on any specific internal data feeds or subjective judgments.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. A major film release featuring a particular actor, a viral social media moment, or a high-profile television role could all drive increased search volume. Unexpected controversies or positive publicity surrounding an actor could also shift the odds. Furthermore, the performance of actors in award shows or during major cultural events may influence public interest. Any event that captures widespread public attention and generates significant online searches has the potential to move this market.