TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Shadowrocket
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Shadowrocket - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 25, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jul 25, 6:03 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under “Paid Apps”, as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click “Apps” at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to “Top Paid Apps” and click “See All.” Then under “Paid Apps” in the “Top Charts” section, you’ll see the list that will be used as the resolution source for this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/iphone/charts/36?chart=top-paid).
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under “Paid Apps”, as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click “Apps” at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to “Top Paid Apps” and click “See All.” Then under “Paid Apps” in the “Top Charts” section, you’ll see the list that will be used as the resolution source for this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/iphone/charts/36?chart=top-paid).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from thousands of traders with direct financial incentives to forecast accurately. While entertainment analysts may rely on historical trends, critical reviews, or studio backing, this market reflects live consensus from participants who profit only if their prediction matches the actual outcome. Comparing the current odds here to public commentary from industry observers can reveal where the crowd sees edge or where conventional wisdom may be underpricing certain apps' chances of reaching the top spot.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each possible outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share pays out a fixed amount if that app becomes the #1 paid app on the specified date, and traders profit or lose based on the price they paid relative to the final payout. The current odds reflect the cumulative positions of all market participants, with prices adjusting in real time as new trades flow in and sentiment shifts.
This market resolves around Jul 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on identifying which paid application holds the #1 ranking in the US Apple App Store at that time. Once the ranking is established and verified against authoritative sources, the market settles automatically and payouts are distributed to holders of the winning outcome. Traders should monitor app store rankings closely in the days leading up to resolution to track momentum shifts.
Major app launches, celebrity endorsements, viral social media campaigns, and media coverage can rapidly shift this market's odds. Price drops or promotional discounts on competing paid apps may also influence rankings. Updates to app store algorithms, seasonal trends in entertainment spending, and real-time download velocity all serve as leading indicators traders watch. Additionally, reviews, ratings changes, and word-of-mouth momentum can swing conviction about which title will ultimately claim the top spot, causing sharp repricing as new information emerges.
