TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Patient Zero
- Kalshi
Patient Zero - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 28, 2026
Time left: 13d:09h:17m
Will Patient Zero be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Oct 24, 2026
$
Description
This set of markets tracks which song will top the Billboard Hot 100 chart in the week of October 24, 2026. Each market focuses on a different potential chart-topping track, allowing participants to speculate on which song will achieve the highest popularity that week.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified song reaches the #1 position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week ending October 24, 2026. The markets cover a variety of songs across different artists and titles. All markets explicitly state that neither Billboard nor the Hot 100 chart endorses these markets, and any references to Billboard or the Hot 100 are used descriptively without implying endorsement or affiliation with Billboard or Kalshi. The resolution is solely based on the official Billboard Hot 100 chart ranking for that specific week.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on streaming numbers, radio play, and critical reception, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of factors and potentially anticipating shifts in public opinion. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies and the ability of the market to rapidly adjust to new information. It’s interesting to see how the collective predictions here compare to those made by music industry experts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a particular song reaching the top spot. As more people buy a contract, the price goes up, reflecting a higher probability, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, scaled to a maximum of 100. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective judgment of traders.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of October 24, 2026, is officially published. The song listed at number one on that chart will determine the winning outcome. The result will be verified against credible public reporting from Billboard and other reliable music industry sources. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final chart position.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major album releases from popular artists, unexpected viral trends on social media, and shifts in radio airplay could all influence the odds. A song’s performance on streaming platforms will be a key indicator, as will any significant media coverage or endorsements. Unexpected collaborations or controversies surrounding artists could also cause substantial movement in the market as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions.
