TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart
Volume:
$2,477,260
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Bundesliga match between FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart scheduled for March 7, 2026. Three separate prediction markets track the outcome: whether Mainz wins, Stuttgart wins, or the match ends in a draw. All markets resolve based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic is logically contradictory, stating all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Tie, Stuttgart win, Mainz win) each resolve to Yes. Polymarket has coherent logic but treats cancellation asymmetrically across outcome markets.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets as written—the logic is unresolvable. On Polymarket, note that a canceled match with no makeup resolves the Draw market to Yes but Mainz/Stuttgart markets to No. Clarify with platform whether Kalshi intended only the actual outcome to resolve Yes, or if this represents a critical platform error.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: All three outcome markets (Tie, Stuttgart win, Mainz win) are stated to resolve Yes. This is logically impossible since only one outcome can occur. Quote: 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Stuttgart wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Mainz wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' No cancellation handling specified.
- Polymarket: Three separate markets with mutually exclusive outcomes. Mainz Win and Stuttgart Win resolve No if canceled with no makeup. Draw market resolves Yes if canceled with no makeup. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No' (Mainz/Stuttgart) vs 'this market will resolve Yes' (Draw). Postponed games remain open until completion.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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