TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SK Sigma Olomouc
Volume:
$236,662
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a professional Conference League soccer match between FSV Mainz 05 and SK Sigma Olomouc scheduled for March 19, 2026. Three markets track the outcome: whether the match ends in a draw, whether Mainz wins, and whether Olomouc wins, all measured within 90 minutes plus stoppage time (excluding extra time and penalties).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket structures three independent binary markets with asymmetric cancellation logic, while Kalshi presents a single tautological market where one of three outcomes always resolves Yes. The scope and settlement mechanics differ fundamentally.Hero Tip:
On Polymarket, if the match is canceled with no makeup, the Draw market resolves Yes but both Win markets resolve No—creating a profitable arbitrage trap for uninformed traders. On Kalshi, the market structure guarantees a Yes resolution unless the match is postponed indefinitely or canceled; verify Kalshi's postponement and cancellation rules with the platform directly, as they are absent from the provided description. Use Polymarket's three discrete markets for precise outcome hedging; treat Kalshi's market as a binary bet on whether the match occurs at all.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets (Draw, Mainz Win, Olomouc Win). Cancellation with no makeup: Draw resolves Yes, both Win markets resolve No. Postponement keeps markets open. Resolution source: official UEFA statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours of match conclusion. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.
- Kalshi: Single market with three mutually exclusive outcomes (Mainz wins, Tie, Olomouc wins), all resolving to Yes. Tautological structure guarantees one outcome always resolves Yes. No explicit cancellation or postponement rules provided in description. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only (no extra time or penalties).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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