TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Muse - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 18, 2026
Closed: Sep 18, 2:05 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for this specific event. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical polls or expert opinions. This market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately assess the probability of an app reaching the top spot. Discrepancies between this market and external forecasts can highlight areas where the market perceives information differently than conventional analysis, or where a different set of factors are deemed most important.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of the event occurring. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the aggregate sentiment of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the likelihood of an app achieving the #1 ranking in the US App Store.
This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the ranking of apps in the US Apple App Store will be checked on September 18 to determine which app, if any, holds the #1 position. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from the Apple App Store itself, ensuring transparency and objectivity in determining the final result of this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major app releases from popular developers, significant marketing campaigns, or unexpected news regarding app store policies could all shift trader sentiment. Positive or negative press coverage surrounding specific apps, or changes in user reviews and ratings, could also influence the odds. Any event that alters the perceived likelihood of an app reaching the top of the US App Store charts has the potential to move this market considerably before Sep 18, 2026.
