TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
TikTok Pro - Events
- Polymarket
TikTok Pro - Events - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 26, 2026
Closed: Jul 26, 9:50 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect collective trader conviction in real time, often diverging from traditional analyst forecasts because markets incorporate breaking news, app-store algorithm changes, and user behavior shifts faster than published reports. While analysts may rely on historical download trends and marketing spend, this market prices in live sentiment from participants with financial stakes in the outcome. The continuous price discovery on Polymarket typically reveals consensus that differs from static forecasts, especially in fast-moving entertainment categories where app rankings can shift dramatically within hours.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader buy and sell orders into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome—representing a specific app or outcome category—trades as a separate contract, with the combined prices of all outcomes summing to 100 percent. As traders adjust their positions based on new information, the price of each outcome fluctuates, allowing participants to enter or exit positions at any time before the market closes on Jul 24, 2026.
This market resolves around Jul 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning outcome will be determined by which app actually holds the #1 free ranking in the US Apple App Store at the specified time. Traders who backed the correct app will receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution is straightforward and based on observable, publicly available app-store data.
Major catalysts include viral social media campaigns, celebrity endorsements, app-store algorithm updates, and competitor app launches or outages. Seasonal entertainment trends, holiday promotions, and media coverage of trending apps can rapidly shift user downloads and rankings. Technical issues on competing apps, changes in app pricing or in-app purchase strategies, and influencer activity also drive significant market movement. Additionally, real-time download velocity data and app-store featured placement announcements often trigger sharp repricing as traders adjust their positions based on emerging momentum signals.
