TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 17, 2026
Closed: Jul 17, 7:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from thousands of traders with direct financial incentives to be accurate. While analysts may rely on historical trends and qualitative assessments, this market prices in live signals—app store algorithm changes, marketing campaigns, and user sentiment—as they unfold. The continuous nature of trading means odds adjust faster than periodic analyst reports, though both approaches attempt to forecast the same outcome: which app will rank first.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader bets into real-time probability percentages. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy or sell shares representing each possible outcome, and the price of those shares reflects the collective assessment of likelihood. As new information surfaces—app updates, competitor moves, or user adoption trends—traders adjust their positions, moving the price and updating the implied odds displayed on the dashboard.
This market resolves around Jul 17, 2026, once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by checking the official US Apple App Store rankings on that date to confirm which app holds the #1 free position. Traders who backed the correct app receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution hinges on real, observable data from Apple's publicly available store rankings.
Major catalysts include app store algorithm updates, viral marketing campaigns, celebrity endorsements, and competitor app launches or outages. User acquisition spikes driven by social media trends, press coverage, or platform partnerships can dramatically shift download velocity. Technical issues, policy changes, or changes to app store featuring can also sway rankings. Traders monitor app review sentiment, download charts on third-party tracking sites, and industry news to anticipate shifts before they appear in official rankings.
