TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 23, 3:57 PM EST
Polymarket
This event group covers various betting markets for the DFB-Pokal soccer match between 1. FC Phönix Lübeck and SC Paderborn 07, including spread bets, over/under totals, and half-specific outcomes.
More markets for the DFB-Pokal game, scheduled for August 23 at 12:00 PM ET.
The event evaluates various goal-difference thresholds to determine outcomes for the Phonix Lubeck versus Paderborn match in the DFB Pokal, scheduled for August 23, 2026. All markets resolve based solely on regulation time—90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty kicks. Four distinct outcome categories exist: Phonix Lubeck winning by more than 2.5 goals, Phonix Lubeck winning by more than 1.5 goals, Paderborn winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Paderborn winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team achieves the corresponding goal-difference margin; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The rules explicitly state that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Market design and user base differences drive pricing variations between Polymarket and Kalshi. Each platform attracts distinct traders, influencing how probabilities are weighted. Liquidity levels also play a role — deeper pools on one exchange can make its lines more responsive to large trades. Regulatory or listing rules unique to a platform may limit certain outcome types, subtly shifting prices. Additionally, timing of order placement and differing fee structures can create temporary mispricings. These factors combined mean Polymarket and Kalshi may show divergent views on the Lübeck vs. Paderborn match market until arbitrage or market adjustments bring them closer.