TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
1. FC Nürnberg vs. SG Dynamo Dresden
Volume:
$53,854
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming 2. Bundesliga game, scheduled for Saturday, April 11, 2026 between 1. FC Nürnberg and SG Dynamo Dresden.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Nürnberg win, draw, Dresden win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi defines three independent YES-resolution markets that all resolve YES simultaneously for any match outcome, creating a logical contradiction.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across both platforms assuming equivalent exposure. On Polymarket, exactly one of the three markets will resolve YES (standard match outcome betting). On Kalshi, all three markets resolve YES regardless of outcome (each market is outcome-agnostic). If you hedge by buying YES on all three Kalshi markets, you will profit on all three simultaneously, which is economically nonsensical for a single match. Clarify Kalshi's intent with the platform before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets where the match outcome determines exactly one winner. Each market resolves YES or NO based on the final score: 'If 1. FC Nürnberg wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (Nürnberg market); 'If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (Draw market); 'If SG Dynamo Dresden wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (Dresden market). Only one of these three can resolve YES for any given match outcome.
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi defines three independent markets, each with an identical resolution rule: all three markets resolve to YES if their respective condition is met, but the conditions are exhaustive and mutually exclusive (Nuremberg wins, Dresden wins, or Tie). This creates a logical impossibility: the platform states 'If Nuremberg wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Dresden wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes,' implying all three markets resolve YES simultaneously for any outcome, which contradicts standard match logic.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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