TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen - More Markets
Volume:
$294,629
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Bundesliga match between 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 and Bayer 04 Leverkusen scheduled for March 21, 2026 at 10:30 AM ET. Markets span total goals (Over/Under at 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, and 4.5 thresholds), both teams scoring, and point spreads for both teams at -1.5 and -2.5 goal margins. All markets resolve based on the official final score within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use different threshold interpretations for total goals markets. Kalshi offers markets at 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, and 4.5 goals (resolving YES if combined score exceeds these thresholds), while Polymarket uses 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, and 4.5 but with different outcome mappings: Polymarket's O/U 3.5 resolves Over at 4+ goals, O/U 2.5 resolves Over at 3+ goals, and O/U 4.5 resolves Over at 5+ goals, creating misalignment on what constitutes the same threshold.Hero Tip:
If you trade the same goal threshold on both platforms, verify the exact resolution rule: Kalshi uses 'more than X goals' while Polymarket uses 'X or more goals' for Over outcomes, meaning a final score of exactly 3 goals resolves differently (YES on Kalshi O/U 2.5, but Under on Polymarket O/U 2.5). Arbitrage opportunities exist at boundary scores.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves YES if combined goals are strictly greater than the stated threshold (e.g., O/U 2.5 resolves YES at 3+ goals, O/U 3.5 resolves YES at 4+ goals). Quote: 'If Leverkusen and Heidenheim collectively score more than 2.5 total goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves Over if combined goals meet or exceed a threshold that is 1 goal higher than the stated line (e.g., O/U 2.5 resolves Over at 3+ goals, O/U 3.5 resolves Over at 4+ goals, O/U 4.5 resolves Over at 5+ goals). Quote: 'This market will resolve to Over if 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 and Bayer 04 Leverkusen combine to score 4 or more goals' for the O/U 3.5 market.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.