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1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen - Halftime Result
kalshi
polymarket

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen - Halftime Result

Volume:
$3,866

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 21, 2026

Closed: Mar 21, 10:30 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,501
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Leverkusen

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$88
N/A
N/A
$71
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Heidenheim

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,000
N/A
N/A
$1,000
Settled
No
polymarket

1. FC Heidenheim 1846

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$67
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers the halftime result of the Bundesliga match between 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 and Bayer 04 Leverkusen scheduled for March 21, 2026. Markets track whether Heidenheim wins, Leverkusen wins, or the match is tied after 45 minutes plus stoppage time.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's halftime result market contains a logical contradiction where all three possible outcomes (Heidenheim win, Tie, Leverkusen win) are stated to resolve to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket uses three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive resolution logic.Hero tip: Do not trade or settle Kalshi positions based on the stated rules without platform clarification. The market structure is logically broken. Polymarket's approach is sound: use the three separate markets to determine the halftime outcome, with exactly one resolving Yes and the others No.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Market states: If Heidenheim wins halftime, resolve Yes. If Tie, resolve Yes. If Leverkusen wins, resolve Yes. This creates a tautology where every possible outcome triggers Yes, violating basic market logic. Quote: 'If Heidenheim is the winner...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Tie is the result...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Leverkusen is the winner...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Three distinct binary markets: (1) Draw at halftime resolves Yes if tie, No otherwise. (2) Leverkusen leading resolves Yes if Leverkusen wins halftime, No otherwise. (3) Heidenheim leading resolves Yes if Heidenheim wins halftime, No otherwise. Exactly one of the three will resolve Yes. Quote: 'If the game ends in a draw within the first 45 minutes...this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.