TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
polymarket

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Volume:
$935,988

July 31

 - Polymarket

July 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 6, 2026

Closed: Aug 4, 5:12 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

July 31

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$529,115
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 31

View
100%
67%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$39,100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

August 31

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$123,419
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 14

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$120,331
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$112,288
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 7

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,875
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$859
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks whether the IMF PortWatch data will show 0 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any date between today and October 31, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome an 85.0% probability, while the alternative – 0 ships transiting by September 30, 2026 – is at 1.4%. Resolution will be based on daily transit call data (“Arrivals of Ships”) published by IMF PortWatch at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730. Keep an eye on the IMF PortWatch data published on November 1, 2026, as this date represents the end of the observation window for resolution.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No." Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Hormuz Strait shipping market tracks the current odds that 0 ships will transit the Strait on any date by the resolution date. You can see the implied probability of this outcome, along with the total volume traded—currently $929,089—and the 24-hour volume, which is $30,423. The dashboard also displays the price history, allowing you to analyze how sentiment has shifted over time. This provides a clear view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of this event occurring.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a probability different than what some traditional forecasts indicate. While analyst opinions on geopolitical risks and shipping patterns vary, this market provides a real-time assessment of collective belief. Discrepancies between the prediction market and analyst forecasts can arise from differing information access, biases, or the market’s ability to quickly incorporate new data. It’s important to remember that this market focuses specifically on the number of ships transiting the Hormuz Strait, and reflects that narrow focus.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding ship traffic through the Hormuz Strait. The market will determine whether 0 ships have transited the Strait on any date prior to the resolution date. The outcome will be determined by a review of verified data sources and will be binary: either 0 ships transited, or at least one ship transited.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Escalations in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, would likely increase the perceived risk and potentially shift the odds. Major disruptions to global shipping routes, such as attacks on commercial vessels or blockades, could also have a substantial impact. Conversely, diplomatic breakthroughs or increased security measures could lower the perceived risk. Any significant news regarding oil prices, tanker rates, or major shipping company decisions could also move this market as traders react to new information.